A digital billboard in Jamsil, Songpa District, Seoul, displays the day's temperature and humidity, Aug. 20, as the heat wave and tropical nights are expected to persist until the end of the month. Yonhap

As global temperatures continue to rise, the idea of a comfortable summer may soon become a relic of the past.

The Korean Peninsula could enter an era of "new normal" summers, where extreme heat will become an annual occurrence from 2030, according to Yoon Jin-ho, a professor of climate studies at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology.

This alarming forecast stems from a joint study conducted with Utah State University, which predicts that summer temperatures on the Korean Peninsula will consistently exceed historical averages, driven by the accelerating impacts of global warming.

In an interview with the Hankook Ilbo, Yoon said, "Typically, summer temperatures have fluctuated year by year, showing a general upward trend due to global warming. While the 2018 heatwave broke records set in 1994, it still fell within expected trends."

However, a recent study indicates that from the 2030s, the increase in summer temperatures will be so pronounced that the previous pattern of fluctuations will no longer exist, leading to consistently hotter summers.

The cracked floor of a lake in Naju, South Jeolla Province, on Aug. 10, 2018, when the extreme heat led to droughts, causing the water level in Naju Lake to recede. Yonhap

End of cooler-than-average summers

The research suggests that the likelihood of having a cooler-than-average summer will drop to near zero, with hot summers becoming the norm.

Traditionally, the probability of summer temperatures being higher, lower or about the same as the historical average would each be around 33 percent. However, the chance of a cooler summer is expected to diminish drastically.

While official data for this year's heat wave is still pending, some indicators, such as Seoul's record-breaking tropical nights, exceeding the 26 days recorded in 2018, suggest that this summer may rival the extreme heat of 2018.

The number of reported heat-related illnesses has already surpassed 3,000, breaking the previous record of 2,818 set in 2023.

Visitors at Gwangalli Beach in Busan shield themselves from the sun with umbrellas, hats and coverings while walking barefoot along the shore, Aug. 19, as intense heat waves continued. Yonhap

Treating heatwaves as disasters

Given the increasing severity of heat waves, experts are calling for a more proactive approach to treating extreme heat as a disaster, with corresponding policy measures to address the "new normal" of recurring heat waves.

Although comprehensive heat wave response plans have been developed annually since the 2018 heatwave under the Framework Act on the Management of Disaster and Safety, the response has not yet reached the level of urgency seen with typhoons or heavy rainfall. Current measures still largely rely on individual efforts rather than administrative action.

Experts emphasize the need to refine heat wave forecasts and responses to account for the disproportionate impact on certain communities and sectors.

Professor Hwang Seung-sik of Seoul National University highlighted the increased vulnerability of outdoor workers, particularly those in the gig economy, following the COVID-19 pandemic.

"The government must introduce stronger measures to protect these workers, even if it inconveniences companies," Hwang said.

Yoon also noted the vulnerabilities faced by certain regions, such as Gwangju, where heat-related fatalities among older adults and livestock losses in rural areas with large farming operations were particularly pronounced.

He stressed the importance of providing tailored forecasts and solutions to mitigate these localized impacts.

Additionally, a growing consensus is that urban and rural areas require differentiated strategies, with long-term plans to mitigate the "urban heat island" effect in cities.

Urban heat waves are exacerbated not only by rising summer temperatures but also by factors like heat emissions from concrete surfaces, air conditioning, and vehicles.

Jo Chun-ho, former National Institute of Meteorological Sciences director, said, "Korea suffers from severe heat waves due to both global warming and urbanization. Expanding green spaces could significantly reduce the impact of heat waves."

He also called for integrating climate considerations into the planning stages of urban development and building design rather than focusing solely on maximizing profits.

People take refuge from the heat under the shade at a park in Sangyeok-dong, Daegu, Sunday, as the heat wave continues. Yonhap

This article from the Hankook Ilbo, a sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI and edited by The Korea Times.