President Yoon Suk Yeol visits an emergency room at a general hospital in Gyeonggi Province, Wednesday. Courtesy of the presidential office

Seven months ago, when President Yoon Suk Yeol unveiled his ambitious medical reform plan, which included a significant increase in medical school admission quotas, it was widely welcomed by the public. The plan garnered nearly 80 percent of support, surveys showed, as people positively viewed Yoon's bold move to address the nation's chronic doctor shortage.

The government's stern response to trainee doctors' mass resignations, protesting the quota hike, also resonated with the public. In early March, the president's approval ratings surged to nearly 40 percent, up 10 percentage points compared to the previous month.

Fast forward to late August, however, Yoon's approval rating has plummeted to 29 percent, the lowest since August 2022, according to a recent Realmeter survey. Analysts attribute this decline to growing public frustration with the government's handling of the medical reform plan and its lack of effort to resolve the health care deadlock.

What began as a protest by trainee doctors has now expanded to include medical professionals, leading to reduced operating hours in emergency rooms (ERs) in several general hospitals. In recent weeks, multiple incidents have made headlines where urgent patients were turned away from ERs, resulting in severe conditions or even death due to delays in due medical care.

In response, the government said the situation in hospitals remains manageable in emergency mode, pointing out that doctor shortages in ERs existed even before the strike began.

A patient sits in a wheelchair at a hospital in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, Thursday. A sign reads that treatment at the emergency room can be delayed due to a staff shortage. Yonhap

Yet, with the upcoming Chuseok holiday, which runs from Sept. 14 to 18, when most clinics will close, fears are growing that overburdened ERs will be unable to handle the anticipated surge in patients.

As public frustration intensifies, political analysts warn that Yoon's reform plan stands at a crossroads. The success of his medical reform, they say, now depends on whether the president will shift his course.

"The public is losing patience with the strained health care system. While doctors share some blame for turning their backs on patients, the government is also at fault for not taking an active role in persuading them to return," said Park Sang-byeong, a professor at Inha University's Graduate School of Policy Studies.

Park emphasized that how the president resolves the medical standoff will have a significant impact on his other reform agendas — labor, education and pension.

"The president, who approaches the halfway point of his term in a few months, faces a crucial dilemma," the professor said. "If he concedes to the doctors now, he risks losing momentum for other reforms. However, if he continues to dig in, the health care crisis may spiral out of control, making it even more difficult to recover his approval ratings."

The root of the prolonged standoff lies in Yoon's determination to increase medical school quotas — from the current 3,058 to 5,058 for the 2025 academic year — followed by an additional 2,000 seats annually through 2029.

His administration views the expansion as essential to alleviating the doctor shortage and ensuring long-term stability in the health care system.

But critics say that his focus on numbers is misplaced.

"Yoon seems fixated on increasing the quota by 2,000 while somewhat overlooking other components of medical reforms such as improving medical service in rural areas and increasing compensation for doctors in harsh working conditions," Park said.

Rep. Lee Jae-myung, center, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, speaks to reporters during his visit to Korea University Anam Hospital, Wednesday. Yonhap

The ongoing standoff has turned into a lonely uphill battle for the president, with little support from the National Assembly.

The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), while agreeing with the need for medical reform, has escalated its criticism of the government's inflexibility in handling the crisis.

During his visit to Korea University Anam Hospital on Wednesday, DPK leader Rep. Lee Jae-myung expressed concerns about the government's adamant stance on increasing the medical school student quota.

"While the goal of increasing the medical school admission quota itself is reasonable, the scale and timeline have been pushed too quickly without adequate justification. This has caused unnecessary disruptions, undermining the purpose and legitimacy of the reform," Lee said.

Lee proposed forming a consultative body with the government and the ruling People Power Party (PPP) to find common ground but remained skeptical. "I can't help but feel frustrated, wondering if these discussions will be meaningful given the presidential office's rigid stance."

In an apparent attempt to mediate, in late August, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon floated the idea of delaying the quota increase in the 2026 academic year. However, the presidential office quickly dismissed the proposal.

Political commentator Rhee Jong-hoon said the PPP leader's role in resolving the medical standoff is limited.

"Han doesn't have the authority to openly lead on this issue, as he's trying to avoid clashing with the presidential office," Rhee said.

"The current standoff will not be resolved unless the president shifts his position. While his leadership style can be characterized as strong determination in his policy drives, the public is increasingly viewing him as too stubborn and staunch in the medical dispute that has put people's lives at risk," he added.

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a press conference at the presidential office in Seoul, Aug. 29. Yonhap

The presidential office announced Friday its willingness to form a consultative body with both ruling and opposition parties to adjust the scale of the medical school admission quota hike starting for the 2026 academic year.

"If the doctors can provide reasonable and scientific projections, we are open to engaging in candid discussions. Everything can be reviewed from square one in these talks," a senior presidential official said.

However, it remains to be seen whether the government will soften its hardline stance and swiftly develop an exit plan to bring doctors back to work.