Participating scholars of the Ieodo International Seminar applaud during the event at Hotel The One on Jeju Island, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

JEJU — Sitting 149 kilometers southwest of Mara Island, Korea's southernmost island, Ieodo is a submerged reef named after local lore about fishermen from Jeju.

Legend has it that there is an invisible island in the expansive ocean south of Jeju, home to stunning women. This island patiently awaits the arrival of stranded fishermen, luring them in with its charm. Yet, once they set foot on its shores, these fishermen discover they are unable — or not permitted — to depart from this captivating paradise.

Often revered by locals as an uncharted island where fishermen who perish in turbulent waters are fated to spend eternity, Ieodo has taken center stage in the nation's geopolitics. Its significance goes beyond the realm of folklore, as it has become a point of contention due to jurisdictional disputes raised by the Chinese government.

Despite being geographically closer to Korean territory, Beijing unilaterally expanded its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over Ieodo in November 2013. In response, Seoul swiftly declared its own ADIZ over the reef to assert its rights over the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) surrounding it.

Tensions have been spreading all over the West Pacific since China started pursuing regional hegemony in East Asia. Experts are now warning that if a global war breaks out, the South China Sea will be the most likely flashpoint, particularly the Taiwan Strait.

Society of Ieodo Research Chairman Koh Choong-suk speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at Hotel The One on Jeju Island, Oct. 10. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

In a bid to discuss such prevailing concerns about China's expansionist policies in light of Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term, the Society of Ieodo Research hosted the 8th Ieodo International Seminar at Hotel The One on Jeju Island on Oct. 10 to 11 under the theme of "The Future of East Asian Waters and Maritime Geopolitics." Renowned scholars from five countries — Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines — participated in the two-day seminar to discuss the issue.

"China's maritime expansionism and the international legal disputes surrounding it have become increasingly evident," Society of Ieodo Research Chairman Koh Choong-suk said during his opening remarks at the event co-organized by The Korea Times.

"The Ieodo waters are not exempt from such conflicts. Discussions and strategic responses are required to address these challenges."

China's growing assertion

In the 1980s, then-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping proposed the "one country, two systems" formula regarding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan during China's negotiations with the United Kingdom over Hong Kong.

However, nearly three decades of tranquility ended in March 2010 when Xi asserted that the South China Sea was a matter of China's territorial sovereignty, designating it as a "core interest" that was non-negotiable under any circumstances.

"This mirrors Vladimir Putin's claim that Ukraine is a core interest of Russia," former Korean Ambassador to Japan Lee Soo-hoon said during his keynote speech.

Former Korean Ambassador to Japan Lee Soo-hoon speaks during his presentation for the Ieodo International Seminar at Hotel The One on Jeju Island, Thursday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

Lin Ying-yu, a professor of international affairs and strategic studies at Taiwan's Tamkang University, also expressed concern over the escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, heightened by Chinese naval threats.

"China has never abandoned the option of using force against Taiwan," Lin said.

"The likelihood of China initiating a full-scale war under the current international circumstances might be low, but they still persist in employing tactics of gray-zone conflict to harass Taiwan and neighboring countries."

Gray-zone tactics refer to a range of political and military activities that occur between outright conflict and peaceful relations in international affairs.

Beijing has also employed gray-zone tactics against the Philippines to assert its claims over the nine-dash line, which represents a series of line segments on various maps demarcating contested areas, including the Paracel Islands, the Spratly Islands, the Pratas Islands, the Vereker Banks, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Scarborough Shoal.

"The Philippine government had initially tried to appease Beijing's jurisdiction claim to some extent," Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor at the Philippines' De La Salle University, said during his presentation.

But he added that the Philippines' vulnerability increases due to its false belief that China's appetite for expansion will be satisfied or redirected.

In April, the Philippine Department of National Defense announced the implementation of a new defense strategy known as the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.

Signaling Manila's commitment focusing more on its external defense, the shift came as Chinese coast guard vessels continue to infringe on the Philippines' EEZ, including ramming, blasting water cannons and conducting other dangerous maneuvers toward Philippine vessels.

"The Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept aims to project the country's military power to the country's 200-nautical mile EEZ," De Castro added.

"(The move) is directed at strengthening the Philippines' diplomatic and strategic posture vis-a-vis Chinese maritime expansion in the South China Sea."

Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor at the Philippines' De La Salle University, speaks during his presentation for the Ieodo International Seminar at Hotel The One on Jeju Island, Friday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

A newly emerging controversy surrounds a proposal by Japan's newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to establish an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This alliance aims to provide collective security in the Asia-Pacific region and was initially suggested during his tenure as the country's defense minister.

His proposal faced significant criticism from both neighboring countries and domestic stakeholders, who deemed it unrealistic and unappealing for regional partners. However, Yasuhiro Kawakami, director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and a senior research fellow, contended that Ishiba's proposal merits serious consideration.

"The growth rate of (China's) military budget remains high. It has increased the number of its modern naval vessels, submarines and fourth- and fifth-generation fighter aircraft," Kawakami said.

He said China's assertive moves have become more active, not only in the East and South China Sea, but also in the Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific and the East Sea of Korea.

"The cooperation, especially between Japan, Korea and the U.S., will ensure air and sea superiority in the region," he said.

A former high-ranking official from Korea's foreign ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it would be impossible for Seoul to endorse the concept of an Asian NATO.

"What regional stakeholders need is Japan's diplomatic position and economic leverage against China, not its rearmament," he said.

Society of Ieodo Research

Addressing China's expansionism in waters surrounding East Asia, Koh founded the Society of Ieodo Research in 2007 to engage in related academic research, education and promotion.

He recalled that former Oceans and Fisheries Minister Kim Seong-jin's advice was crucial in establishing the think tank. Kim warned that Beijing would soon assert its jurisdiction over Ieodo to expand its EEZ. He advised that both the government and the public should thoroughly consider all viewpoints, much like the discourse surrounding Dokdo, which Japan also claims.

"China has continuously pursued its revisionist ideal ever since Xi came to office," Koh said during an interview with The Korea Times on the sidelines of the seminar.

"This won't be settled through peaceful dialogue. China will invade Taiwan sooner or later. International cooperation is now necessary to deter China's expansionism in East Asia."

He also stressed that Seoul will eventually participate in the possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

"Xi will definitely invade Taiwan if Russia prevails in its invasion of Ukraine. The sea channel from Malacca Strait to Ieodo is critical to Korea's trade and energy chain. Related ocean security is vital for Korea's survival."

Bloomberg Economics data suggested that about 90 percent of Korea's entire energy supply chain passes the Malacca Strait via the South China Sea. It also said that Korea's GDP is likely to immediately nosedive by 23.3 percent if China invades Taiwan.

Wrapping up the seminar, participating scholars also agreed to continuously share and address the issue while strengthening their networks.