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Korea's meteorologists fight to save lives amid increasingly extreme weather

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Park Jung-min, right, a forecaster of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecast bureau, and Kong Sang-min, a deputy director of the high-impact weather response team at the KMA, monitor a meteorological radar at a KMA office in Dongjak District, Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of Korea Meteorological Administration

Park Jung-min, right, a forecaster of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecast bureau, and Kong Sang-min, a deputy director of the high-impact weather response team at the KMA, monitor a meteorological radar at a KMA office in Dongjak District, Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of Korea Meteorological Administration

As climate change intensifies, weather experts struggle to make precise forecasts
By Jung Da-hyun

While many perceive the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) as merely a provider of daily weather updates, KMA meteorologists emphasize that their mission encompasses much more than routine forecasts.

"Our primary focus is on safeguarding lives and property from the dangers posed by extreme weather," said Park Jung-min, a forecaster of the KMA forecast bureau, during an interview with The Korea Times, Tuesday.

"On the surface, it seems that firefighters are the ones saving lives, but the KMA is also dedicated to protecting people, often behind the scenes."

Park pointed to Article 1 of the Weather Act, which underscores the KMA's core purpose — to protect citizens' lives and property from meteorological disasters and climate change and to enhance the public good by ensuring effective national meteorological services.

Forecasters start and end their day immersed in weather updates and radar data, constantly assessing the accuracy of their forecasts and monitoring for any signs of severe weather, such as torrential rain.

"The first thing I do after waking up is to check the KMA's official weather app to view real-time radar and see how accurately we forecast the weather," said Kong Sang-min, a deputy director of the high-impact weather response team at the KMA.

For Kong, monitoring high-impact weather events like heavy precipitation is a source of constant vigilance and concern.

"I'm always nervous, wondering what if more rain comes than we predicted, potentially leading to damage," he said.

Kong recalled the August rainfall forecast in Seoul. After issuing a warning, he saw the news that a driver died due to the overflow of the Jungnang Stream in northeastern Seoul's Nowon District.

"After hearing the news, I couldn't stop thinking about it," he said. "I kept questioning if there was any way we could have better anticipated the higher rainfall in that area."

Both Kong and Park noted that many forecasters at the KMA have grappled with trauma from such incidents, feeling a deep sense of responsibility when natural disasters lead to casualties.

"That's why we often describe forecasters as 'otaku' — deeply immersed in and dedicated to the weather," both Park and Kong said.

Kong Sang-min, left, a deputy director of the high-impact weather response team at the KMA, and Park Jung-min, a forecaster of the KMA, pose during an interview with The Korea Times at a KMA office in Seoul's Dongjak District, Tuesday. Courtesy of Korea Meteorological Administration

Kong Sang-min, left, a deputy director of the high-impact weather response team at the KMA, and Park Jung-min, a forecaster of the KMA, pose during an interview with The Korea Times at a KMA office in Seoul's Dongjak District, Tuesday. Courtesy of Korea Meteorological Administration

They also highlighted the inherent challenges of achieving complete accuracy in weather forecasting.

"People often check the weather forecast at night or in the morning to decide what to wear or whether to bring an umbrella, and it's common for them to complain when predictions are off," Park said.

Ironically, KMA forecasters pointed out that while people rely on weather forecasts, they must also recognize the inherent uncertainty in them as the forecasts predict the broader picture based on limited data.

"It's like each forecaster and analyst is feeling a different part of an elephant without seeing it, then trying to picture the whole animal through discussion," Park said.

"There's much variability involved, and more variables make forecasting more difficult."

The limited time, in which forecasters must synthesize data and deliver the most accurate predictions possible, also puts pressure on forecasters.

Additionally, the growing unpredictability caused by the climate crisis is compounding the challenges of weather forecasting.

Over the past decade, extreme rain, over 100 millimeters per hour, occurred on average 1.5 times a year. This year alone, however, it has happened more than 15 times.

"Forecasting is becoming harder, even with more advanced observation equipment, due to unusual climate patterns and phenomena that weren't seen in the past," Kong said.

Kong stressed that building public trust is one of the key goals, so people can take precautionary measures before severe weather strikes.

"We are continually working to improve the quality of our forecasts and find the best ways to communicate with citizens," he said.

Jung Da-hyun dahyun08@ktimes.com


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