North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump move to shake hands at the border village of Panmunjeom in the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas, June 30, 2019. AP-Yonhap

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policy toward North Korea could shake up the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula, leaving South Korea with the daunting challenge of formulating a strategy to coordinate with Washington, a state think tank said Friday.

The foreign ministry-affiliated Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) made the projection as South Korea braces for uncertainties in foreign policy under Trump's second term, set to begin in late January next year.

Trump's team has yet to present its North Korea policy, amid speculation that he could seek to resume the stalled nuclear dialogue with the North's leader Kim Jong-un. The nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang collapsed with the no-deal summit in Hanoi in early 2019.

"Depending on President Trump's policy direction toward North Korea, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to become increasingly volatile, likely fueling debates over the intentions behind U.S. policy and South Korea's response strategies," the IFANS said in its regular outlook report for 2025.

The report predicted that the possibility of a Trump-Kim summit next year is low, as the Trump administration is expected to focus on ending Russia's war in Ukraine, and because Kim may be unwilling to return to dialogue given his lesson from the failed Hanoi talks.

North Korea is also unlikely to preemptively carry out military provocations, such as long-range missile launches, to avoid additional U.S. sanctions and backlash from China, the report said.

Tensions are likely to remain high in inter-Korean relations, as the North is expected to maintain its hostile policy toward the South and continue seeking opportunities to provoke Seoul.

The report also said the North's troop deployment to Russia in support of the war against Ukraine could emerge as a flashpoint in the regime internally.

While Pyongyang will seek to improve its crippled economy through what it may gain from its military alignment with Moscow, the market instability will continue unless its trade with China recovers, the report noted.

South Korea's alliance with the U.S. will largely remain solid under the second Trump administration, but the risk of Trump demanding a raise in the defense burden sharing and his tougher trade policy will remain key tasks for Seoul in its relations with the ally, the report said. (Yonhap)