The following is the 11th in a series of articles examining Seoul-Beijing ties in the wake of the tumultuous relationship between the two countries last year, sparked by the Cheonan incident. ― ED.

By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — As long as North Korea keeps playing innocent about the tragic Cheonan incident, Moon Chung-in at Yonsei University is not optimistic about the prospect of Seoul-Beijing ties either.

"After all, Seoul-Beijing ties have deteriorated not because of bilateral issues, but due to their differences over North Korea. So, unless inter-Korean relations improve, the relationship between Seoul and Beijing won't improve either," said the professor of political science, who served as chairman of the Presidential Committee on Northeast Asian Cooperation Initiatives, a cabinet-level post.

"I think North Korea will continue to deny its involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan. So, I remain pessimistic," said Moon.

When Pyongyang's provocation jolted South Korea-China ties last year, Moon penned a book, "Inquiring about China's Future," published by the Samsung Economic Research Institute, which included a series of interviews he conducted in China with such prominent security experts as Wang Jisi of Peking University to look into China's thinking toward North Korea.

"China seems to have a strong belief that North Korea was not the culprit of the Cheonan (incident). If we want to improve Seoul-Beijing ties, we need to put aside the issue. But that also requires two conditions," said Moon.

"Firstly, the six-party talks discussing the North's nuclear programs should be normalized. Secondly, inter-Korean relations need improvement. The ties between Seoul and Beijing will then get back in shape too."

"I am not sure whether that's possible during the current Lee Myung-bak government's term," said Moon.

The Cheonan incident proved to be a watershed moment for South Korea and China. Seoul was alarmed to see how Beijing could afford to remain "neutral" between the victim and the perpetrator. The Seoul-Beijing bilateral ties have suffered a major setback. But according to Moon, there was a prelude to that. "Since the Lee Myung-bak administration took office, Seoul's ties with Beijing have been actually icy over North Korea. China wanted to promote the six-party talks to resolve the North's nuclear issue. But South Korea said the six-party talks had completed its lifespan and we needed an alternative approach. Seoul proposed 'five-party talks.' Seoul also promoted its own solution to the North Korean problem, known as a 'grand bargain.' China felt its efforts to resolve the North Korean issue were not appreciated by Seoul."

"Then, the Cheonan attack occurred. It dealt a blow to the Seoul-Beijing ties further. It will be now a very challenging task to patch things up," said Moon.

Moon had the rare experience of participating in both of the inter-Korean summits, held in Pyongyang, in 2000 and 2007, as a negotiation coach to then Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, respectively. As an insider to the inter-Korean interactions, he questioned the effectiveness of the current Lee administration's strategy toward North Korea.

"All South Korea's approach toward North Korea has conditions attached. For example, regarding the high-level military talks, the South demands the North apologize for the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong first. If the North wants to improve its relations with the South, it also says the North should first commit itself to denuclearization. That approach has not worked for the last three and a half years under the Lee administration," Moon said.

"Especially in terms of building trust, such an approach is not desirable."

Moon sees such a flawed approach to North Korea is the result of the "self-hypnosis" of those people who advise the Lee administration on North Korea, and as a result, he claims that "President Lee failed to grasp North Korea in an objective and concrete manner."

Without revealing names, Moon said President Lee's advisers on China also have "misunderstandings." "The misunderstanding of those individuals within the Lee Myung-bak administration is that, firstly, they think if South Korea talks to the United States and if the United States tells China, China will listen. Secondly, even if China has become more powerful in recent years, if we present well-organized logic, China will buy it and change its attitude toward North Korea."

But that didn't happen. "Now they say, 'After all, China is a communist country. By destiny, they take sides with North Korea."

When asked how Seoul can get Beijing to take sides with South Korea, not North Korea, Moon said the very premise of such an approach is flawed: "If we can find a win-win solution, we don't have to take sides. The dualistic view of whether China is on the side of South Korea or on the side of North Korea is problematic. And that's the same problem for some China experts in South Korea as well."

Moon's pessimism prevails regarding the prospect for the future inter-Korean relationship, which, according to him, is the underlying trigger for Seoul-Beijing incompatibility,

"North Korea will continue to deny its involvement in the Cheonan sinking. Seoul says it has clear evidence that the North sank the Cheonan. If the two sides maintain their current postures, which are very likely, I am afraid there's little to expect."

Meanwhile, Moon worries about possible physical clashes between the two Koreas.

Pyongyang Saturday again claimed it had nothing to do with the Cheonan tragedy, accusing Seoul of "framing" the North.

The two Koreas are still technically at war as the Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty that would officially close the war. Seoul and Pyongyang came close to the brink of war when the North shelled Yeonpyeong Island in November.

On the same Saturday, bowing before the altar of the fallen sailors from the Cheonan incident, President Lee Myung-bak told the bereaved family members: "We won't forget."

"It will be difficult for Lee to change his attitude toward the North because he has a domestic audience. If Lee changes his mind, then they will accuse Lee of being a liar," Moon said.