By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea's latest missile launch shows that it has taken a significant step forward in developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could strike targets on the U.S. mainland, analysts said Tuesday.
A report released on the same day by the Institute for National Security Strategy also said the North's launch was aimed at showing off its confidence that it will be able to test-fire an ICBM within this year.
“By showing off advances made in missile capabilities, North Korea appears to show that its development of an ICBM is proceeding smoothly and it can test-fire it within this year,” the report said.
Kim Dong-yup, a researcher at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES), said that the launch showed that Pyongyang is in the middle stage of a process to develop the missile capability from a Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) to an ICBM. The Musudan is estimated to have a range of over 3,000 kilometers, which is theoretically capable of reaching the U.S. territory of Guam.
“The North made a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) using Musudan missile technology, and then it made this new strategic weapon using the SLBM technology,” he said. “The new missile is seen as being an interim weapon between the Musudan and an ICBM.”
Experts noted that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to break with former President Barack Obama's strategic patience policy in dealing with the North amid its growing threats, and introduce a hard line policy such as increasing pressure through sanctions and enhancing military exercises with allies in the region.
On Sunday, Pyongyang successfully fired its new IRBM propelled by a solid-fuel engine using a caterpillar-tracked, self-propelled missile launching vehicle.
The North's state media said the country developed the Pukguksong-2 missile based on the success of the SLBM test last August, which also used a solid-fuel engine.
Ministry of Unification spokesman Jeong Joon-hee interpreted the launch as signaling the North's intention to carry out additional military provocations in the future.
The isolated state has been claiming that it is capable of test-firing an ICBM at any time and place when its leader gives the order.
Kim Jong-un said in his New Year address that Pyongyang has entered the final stage of preparations to launch a nuclear armed ICBM capable of striking targets on the U.S. mainland.
Using the system for the latest test enables the country to prepare missile launches in greater secrecy, making it much more difficult to detect, trace and intercept them, according to experts.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the North's latest launch apparently carried the message that it could test-fire an ICBM, conduct an additional nuclear test or launch a long-range rocket in response to Seoul and Washington's planned joint military exercises.
The allies are planning to hold the largest-ever Key Resolve and Foal Eagle joint military drills beginning next month, during which the U.S. will dispatch strategic weapons such as nuclear-capable bombers and an aircraft carrier.
The Ministry of National Defense told the National Assembly, also on Tuesday, that the U.S. agreed to send such weapons in a show of force against the North.
Military officials said they are preparing for Pyongyang's possible provocations over this period as it has long been claiming that the exercises are “dress rehearsals” for an invasion and issued threats of harsh retaliation against “hostile” forces.
But some experts maintained a cautious attitude about the possibility of any provocations. Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said, “The Trump administration has expressed willingness to have dialogue with the North as well as pushing a hard line policy. If the North launches an ICBM in this situation, the U.S. will completely turn to the hard-line policy. The North may feel uncomfortable about this.”
During a joint news conference at the White House with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Monday, Trump said he will deal with North Korea “very strongly,” calling Pyongyang a “big, big problem.”
But he did not elaborate on specific strategies to deal with the North.