| President Moon Jae-in / Yonhap |
An initiative proposed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in to establish regional cooperation including with North Korea on infectious diseases may provide a chance to bring communist nation into an international community, experts said Wednesday.
The experts noted multilateral leadership may also provide a much needed tool to jointly battle the COVID-19 pandemic in Northeast Asia.
The remarks came one day after the South Korean leader proposed launching a "Northeast Asia Cooperation Initiative" for infectious disease control and public health in his address to the United Nations General Assembly.
The South Korean president proposed the envisioned initiative include China, Japan and Mongolia, along with the two Koreas.
"A cooperative architecture that guarantees collective protection of life and safety will lay the groundwork for North Korea to have its security guaranteed by engaging with the international community," Moon said.
Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted sharing of information itself may be an incentive for the North to take part.
"So I think there's a lot of information that could be shared among China, Japan and South Korea when it comes to dealing with the pandemic. Obviously, this is a pivot to bring in North Korea, you know. That's certainly part of what Moon is doing. But I think it's a useful initiative," he told a virtual seminar hosted by CSIS.
Pyongyang has yet to officially report any outbreak of the new coronavirus within its territory.
However, many believe the impoverished North may be facing what they call a "triple whammy" that include the COVID-19 pandemic, its shutdown of borders in a precaution against the ongoing pandemic, and economic difficulties created by international sanctions and accelerated by recent typhoons.
North Korea has also stayed away from any dialogue table since its leader, Kim Jong-un, held a second bilateral summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in February 2019 that ended without any deal.
Trump and Kim held their first summit in June 2018.
The former director for Asian Affairs of the White House's National Security Council also said he welcomes any type of multilateral efforts to tackle COVID-19 amid what he called an absence of any leadership from global superpowers such as the United States.
"It's just that the United States under this administration has made pretty clear that they're not interested in any sort of multilateral effort," said Cha.
John Nilsson-Wright, Northeast Asia researcher at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said the initiative may be a pragmatic approach to engage North Korea.
Still, he said it was important to include North Korea as a member, instead of a recipient.
"And if you can do it in a way that the North Koreans ― that allows them to claim some agency ― so that it doesn't look as if they're the recipient of a charitable handout. I think that's important," he told the webinar.
Meanwhile, the experts noted the North will likely refrain from military provocations at least until the end of the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential election.
"I see most likely North Korea reverting back to provocation probably after the November election," said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA official who now serves as a senior fellow at CSIS.
The CSIS has noted increased provocations by North Korea in and around U.S. election years, in apparent attempts to influence the outcome of U.S. elections.
Terry argued the North Korean leader will likely adopt a "wait-and-see attitude" to first see what happens to Trump, with whom he held the two U.S.-North Korea summits and a meeting inside the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas in June 2019.
She insisted an "October surprise" from North Korea may be unlikely, given that early voting has already started in the U.S. presidential election.
On a similar note, the former CIA official said the U.S. too will likely stay away from provoking North Korea before the election.
"I don't think ... he's going to say anything that's going to really rile up North Koreans because the Trump administration obviously has an incentive for North Koreans to stay fairly quiet and not resort to any kind of provocation, at least until the November election," she said, referring to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's upcoming trip to Asia that earlier reports suggested may include stops in Seoul and Tokyo. (Yonhap)