| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is surrounded by war veterans during an event celebrating the 69th anniversary of end of the Korean War (1950-53) in front of the Monument to the Victorious Fatherland Liberation War in Pyongyang, North Korea, Thursday, in this photo released Friday by the official North Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
Kim honors Beijing's support on 69th anniversary of end of Korean War
By Jung Min-ho
North Korea may postpone its next nuclear weapons test for several months until the end of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the country's most important event in years, according to experts Friday.
The North has completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test, intelligence reports show. But it has not taken action for months. Experts say China is most likely the reason behind the delay as Pyongyang's test will certainly take away the world's attention from the crucial political event and might lead to the worst-case scenario for Chinese leaders, especially President Xi Jinping, who seeks to secure a precedent-defying third term in power there.
In Wednesday's speech on the 69th anniversary of the end of the Korean War (1950-53), North Korean leader Kim Jong-un honored the Chinese soldiers who "shed their blood with our military" in the conflict against South Korea and United Nations Command.
"All of North Korea's nuclear weapons tests in the past were conducted when either it was isolated, including from its allies such as China, or there were technical and political needs," Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told The Korea Times. "After mentioning the Chinese military's contribution to the war, Kim paid his respects to the Chinese soldiers the next day at a monument symbolizing the alliance of the two nations. The North must be thinking how its nuclear test would affect the relations, especially ahead of the critical event for Xi."
| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits a monument symbolizing the Pyongyang-Beijing alliance in Pyongyang, North Korea, Thursday, in this photo released Friday by the official North Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
In that speech, Kim said his armed forces were completely prepared to respond to any crisis, threatening to "annihilate" the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and South Korea's military. But there was no suggestion that he is about to order a nuclear weapons test, Hong noted.
"Throughout his message, Kim takes on a passive and defensive posture … It is possible that the North would respond militarily when South Korea and the U.S. conduct their joint drills in August. But it will most like be launching short-range missiles, not another nuclear test," he added.
The worst-case scenario for Beijing, especially before the party congress expected to be held in September or October, is giving Seoul a reason to justify its move to install additional U.S. anti-ballistic missile defense systems, simply known as THAAD, on its soil, said Cheong Seong-chang, director at the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, a think tank. It was one of Yoon's key campaign pledges.
| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this June 20, 2019, file photo provided by the official Korean Central News Agency. AP-Yonhap |
"In the past, China stopped the operation of its oil pipeline to North Korea (saying 'it needs to be repaired') as a means of pressuring Pyongyang. Today, Beijing has one more effective measure: their cross-border freight train services, which have been suspended over COVID-19," he said. "Without resources coming from that line, many of the North's major projects this year, including the construction of apartment buildings, would be disrupted … Beijing would not think it can completely stop the North's nuclear test plan, but it has many cards to delay it (until after the party congress)."
Pyongyang-Beijing relations remained at a low point after Kim rose to power in late 2011. Four of North Korea's six total nuclear weapons tests so far were conducted under his watch (2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017). In signs of a rapprochement, Kim and Xi held five summits in 2018 and 2019. The 2017 test was the North's latest.