By Mitch Shin
It has been apparent that the competition between the U.S.-led alliance and the anti-U.S. coalition in the East Asia region, endangers the Korean Peninsula and may be a key area for the new Cold War.
Considering the monumental agreement signed in the six-party talks in 2005 ― which encompassed the phased denuclearization of North Korea under the support of the U.S., South Korea, Japan, China, Russia and North Korea ― it is a tragedy that the U.S. and South Korea cannot garner support from China and Russia on North Korea issues at the moment. As we witnessed the limitations of the U.S.-led alliance to resolve the North's illicit nuclear and missile threats due to the vetoes of China and Russia in the United Nations Security Council, North Korea will continue developing its advanced nuclear program with no effective check going forward.
During the 2018 Singapore Summit, then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un confirmed joint efforts to denuclearize North Korea while reaffirming the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, one of the biggest accomplishments then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in made during his first summit meeting with Kim. As both leaders then agreed to establish new U.S.-North Korea relations "in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity," Washington should take a more active stance, formalizing its cemented willingness to negotiate with Pyongyang under the agreements made in the past. This is the price Washington should make due to Trump's political decision to walk out of the Hanoi summit in 2019 ― which ultimately pushed North Korea to take a more hawkish position to lead the U.S. and South Korean concessions first while isolating itself even further.
The Ukraine War, which started on Feb. 24, 2022, by the Russian invasion, aggravated security concerns in regions where parties pursued different ideologies such as the two Koreas. Ironically, Russia's invasion of Ukraine rather demonstrated that dismantling nuclear arsenals is a choice that autocratic leaders should never adopt due to safety. Without clear and consolidated security guarantees, Kim would never give up his nuclear weapons even though he once showed his willingness to denuclearize his country during the peace process of the Moon administration in 2018.
Also, as Trump rejected Kim's offers to progressively denuclearize his country in exchange for the partial withdrawal of economic sanctions, it has become clear from Kim's perspective that the U.S. economic assistance and security guarantee to his country will follow up only after he dismantles all of his nuclear programs ― which could be a suicidal decision for Kim as his power comes from his nuclear programs within North Korea.
Technically, the two Koreas are still at war. The policymakers in the U.S. and South Korea have tried to set the timeline to formally end the Korean War. However, it has not been discussed seriously and deeply as other issues such as taking back the wartime operational control (OPCON) and the possible withdrawal of roughly 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea have been repeatedly dragged into discussions as major barriers.
Since the breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi Summit meeting between Trump and Kim, there has been no major momentum that Washington and Seoul can utilize to revive the stalled dialogue with Pyongyang. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in Pyongyang imposing a complete shutdown for almost three years. The Ukraine War divided the world into two sides: the pro-U.S. and the anti-U.S. state actors. While there is no sensational diplomatic overture that can bring the North Korean leader back to the negotiating table, offering to sign the peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean War might be an approach that interests Kim. It could consequentially be a catalyst for constructing permanent peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula in the end. Also, it could be the starting point for the U.S., South Korea, China and North Korea to make the Korean Peninsula a buffer zone with no nuclear weapons.
The arms race has intensified on the Korean Peninsula since South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May 2022. The blame should, for sure, go to North Korea as it repeatedly launched ballistic missiles, a clear violation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions, and led the U.S. and South Korea to reinvigorate their joint military drills. To respond to the North's missile threats, it is understandable that the U.S. and South Korea hold joint military drills and deploy the U.S. strategic assets involving its aircraft career to the South's soil.
Considering the isolation of North Korea in the international community, and the conventional and asymmetrical military capabilities of North Korea, what should be noted is that Washington and Seoul's hawkish overture could give Pyongyang room to justify its illicit missile launches as an act of self-defense. In this context, it is critical for Washington and Seoul to make consistent efforts to resolve the security issues on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy, not military measures, as the costs would be greater if Pyongyang continues to develop new types of nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
In its military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the 1950-53 Korean War Armistice on July 27, North Korea displayed its Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), new military drones which had crossed the South's air space in December 2022, and other missile weapons with the attendance of the Russian and Chinese delegations. The photo of Kim standing with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Li Hongzhong, a vice chairman of the standing committee of China's National People's Congress, implies the new Cold War can begin on the Korean Peninsula as Pyongyang is also gripping its ties with Beijing and Moscow.
Thus, if the U.S. and South Korea want to make a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula for peace and prosperity in the region, they should craft a concrete offer ending the 1950-53 Korean War to North Korea and China with no pointless delay. Putting political interests aside, it is time for all concerned countries to weigh in to make a peaceful Korean Peninsula through diplomatic means centered on dialogue.
Mitch Shin is a young fellow at The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was an assistant editor and chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat, and a non-resident research fellow at The Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center.