Recent comments and accusations suggesting that the Yoon Suk Yeol administration may be creating a situation to declare martial law have reignited interest in the topic within South Korea. Conspiracy theorists and some politicians have gone as far as to accuse the administration of plotting a "palace coup," citing the appointment of key figures, such as the new minister of national defense, the head of military intelligence and other military leaders who share the same alumni network as President Yoon. While these claims are largely speculative, they reflect a deeper unease in the country's political landscape, fueled by memories of past authoritarian rule and ongoing tensions in inter-Korean relations.

Martial law in South Korea refers to a legal framework under which the administrative and judicial powers of the state are transferred to a military commander. Under the Constitution of the Republic of Korea, the president has the authority to declare martial law, as stipulated by the Martial Law Act, in circumstances of war, armed conflict or other national emergencies deemed equivalent in gravity. The objective of martial law is to meet military requirements or maintain public safety and order when the normal functions of government are perceived to be inadequate.

Martial law is divided into two types: emergency martial law and security martial law. Emergency martial law grants the government sweeping powers, such as suspending the warrant system, restricting freedom of the press, curbing publication rights and limiting assembly and association, as well as overriding the authority of civilian courts and government agencies. When martial law is declared, the president must notify the National Assembly immediately. If the National Assembly demands its termination by a majority vote, the president is legally obligated to comply. While the National Assembly retains legislative authority, there are exceptional circumstances under which a military regime can temporarily assume control, particularly in the event of a coup that disrupts the normal constitutional order.

Martial law has a troubled history in South Korea. It was first declared on Oct. 21, 1948, in response to the Yeosu-Suncheon Incident, a rebellion by South Korean soldiers who refused to suppress a left-wing uprising. Since then, it has been used by various regimes as a mechanism to maintain power, often at the expense of civil liberties. One of the most infamous instances occurred in 1979, following the assassination of President Park Chung-hee. Martial law was declared nationwide, leading to the suppression of pro-democracy movements and widespread human rights abuses.

These historical abuses of martial law have left a deep imprint on South Korean society, creating a strong public aversion to any suggestion of its reimplementation. The memories of authoritarian rule, censorship and political persecution are still fresh for many citizens, particularly for those who lived through the turbulent decades of the 1960s to 1980s. The last declaration of martial law, in 1979, marked a period of intense social and political repression and the eventual rise of a democratic movement that culminated in the democratic reforms of the late 1980s.

The current accusations against the Yoon administration, suggesting a potential "palace coup" or the preparation for martial law, are emerging against a backdrop of severe political polarization and public distrust. Critics argue that recent appointments of military leaders closely associated with President Yoon's network could be a move to consolidate power over key security institutions. These accusations are fueled by conspiracy theories, often spread on social media, that suggest an orchestrated effort to undermine democratic processes.

While these theories lack substantial evidence, they reflect the broader anxieties of a politically divided nation. South Korea remains deeply polarized, with factions both on the left and the right engaging in heated debates over the direction of national policy, governance and responses to external threats, particularly from North Korea. In such a climate, even unfounded rumors can gain traction, feeding public mistrust and intensifying political tensions.

Despite the heightened rhetoric, the likelihood of a successful coup or the declaration of martial law in contemporary South Korea remains low. The country is now one of Asia's most vibrant democracies, with strong institutions, an independent judiciary and a civil society that actively participates in political discourse. Recent history has demonstrated the South Korean people's commitment to democracy and their refusal to tolerate authoritarian governance. The 2016-17 candlelit protests, which led to the impeachment and removal of President Park Geun-hye, are a testament to this enduring democratic spirit.

For any attempt at a coup or martial law to be successful, it would require more than just control over military appointments; it would demand the complicity of the broader military establishment and, crucially, a passive or supportive public. However, recent events have shown that South Koreans are highly vigilant and ready to mobilize in defense of their democratic rights. Public opinion polls consistently show a strong preference for democracy over any form of authoritarian rule, and the military itself has undergone significant reforms since the democratic transition of the late 1980s, making it more professional and less prone to political manipulation.

While the idea of a coup or the imposition of martial law in today's South Korea may serve as a compelling plot for a novel, the practical realities make such an event unlikely. The speculation about a "palace coup" or authoritarian takeover feeds on existing political tensions, conspiracy theories and a polarized public discourse. However, the country's robust democratic institutions, legal safeguards and the demonstrated resolve of its people to resist any erosion of their freedoms significantly diminish the likelihood of such a scenario.

Nevertheless, it remains essential for South Koreans to remain vigilant. History has shown that unchecked ambition and political opportunism can sometimes lead to extreme measures, even in seemingly stable democracies. While the chances of a coup or martial law are slim, the importance of maintaining democratic norms and ensuring that power is exercised transparently and accountably cannot be overstated. As South Korea continues to navigate its complex political landscape, the vigilance of its citizens will remain the strongest safeguard against any threats to its democratic integrity.

Chun In-bum (truechun@naver.com) served as a lieutenant general of the ROK Army and commander of Special Forces Korea.