Ukraine servicemen of the 24th Mechanised Brigade fire 2S5 self-propelled 152mm howitzer toward Russian positions near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, in this photo provided by Ukraine's 24th Mechanised Brigade press service. AP-Yonhap
South Korea is facing an increasingly complex dilemma over whether to provide military aid to Ukraine, caught between the diverging stances of U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, according to analysts, Wednesday.
The incoming Trump administration has pledged to scale back U.S. military support for Ukraine and push to end the war. In contrast, Biden remains committed to aiding Kyiv during his final two months in office.
On Tuesday, which marked the 1,000th day of the war, Ukraine launched six U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian territory. This marked the first time Kyiv had used American missiles against Russian soil, coming just two days after the U.S. leader approved their deployment.
But Biden's decision to authorize the use of U.S.-supplied missiles has drawn sharp criticism from Trump's team.
Mike Waltz, Trump's pick for national security adviser, called it “another step in the escalation ladder” and warned it could lead to more North Korean troops being deployed to support Russia, during an interview with Fox News. He also mentioned that "South Korea is now saying it may get engaged."
The reluctance of Trump's team to expand the Russo-Ukraine war has complicated Seoul's decision on supplying arms to Kyiv. Just weeks ago, the South Korean government announced that it may consider providing weapons to the war-torn nation — a significant policy shift — in response to the deployment of North Korean troops on Russia's side in the conflict.
Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said South Korea is becoming more cautious about providing arms to Ukraine, especially after Trump's reelection.
“While it's important to align with the Biden administration, if South Korea provides military support to Ukraine while Trump is signaling a reduction in aid, it will inevitably affect the South Korea-U.S. alliance in the coming months,” Doo said, noting that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin may have already begun behind-the-scenes negotiations for a peace agreement.
U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles are fired from an undisclosed location in Ukraine, Tuesday, in this image captured from a video posted by a Telegram channel affiliated with the Ukrainian military. AP-Yonhap
Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Biden's authorization of Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory seems to be a response to North Korean military involvement.
“U.S. officials have repeatedly stated that if North Korean troops join the fight, they will become legitimate targets. The primary targets of the ATACMS missiles are likely to be North Korean infantry in Russia's Kursk region, who are poorly armed," Cho said.
According to South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Wednesday, about 10,900 North Korean troops have been deployed to Kursk as part of Russia's airborne units and marines, with some already participating in combat.
However, Cho argued that these developments are unlikely to change the overall course of the war.
“Even without the Trump factor, the war in Ukraine seems to have shifted to a phase of regional skirmishes focused on limited territorial gains, with a major expansion of the conflict looking unlikely. As the situation seems to be moving into a so-called 'control mode' with Trump's return, South Korea's rationale in providing military aid to Ukraine in response to North Korean troops could lack clarity,” he said.
Amid these developments, a Ukrainian government delegation, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umierov, is expected to visit South Korea as early as this week, with a formal request for defensive weapons. The outcome of this visit is seen as crucial in determining Seoul's future stance on providing military assistance.
Doo said the visit may not yield favorable results for Ukraine, noting, “Providing weapons is not solely a bilateral decision between Seoul and Kyiv. It also involves the U.S. and NATO."
According to South Korea's presidential office, Washington gave prior notice to Seoul about its approval of the ATACMS, but the discussions did not include South Korea's potential arms support for Ukraine.
“As allies, South Korea and the U.S. can exchange necessary weapons if needed,” an official at the presidential office said, Tuesday. “However, no decisions have been made, nor have detailed discussions begun, specifically regarding Ukraine.”
The official added that South Korea will further clarify its stance on arms aid after discussions with the Ukrainian delegation.