President Yoon Suk Yeol extends a hand to Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in Bali, Indonesia, Nov. 15, 2022. Yonhap
China is showing signs of a renewed desire to mend ties with South Korea. At the same time, North Korea is placing greater emphasis on its relationship with Russia. The world's second-largest economy is also bracing for an uncertain future with Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to foreign relations experts and scholars.
However, South Korea's current leadership void is likely to pose a major setback to improving ties between the two countries, they said.
North Korea's relationship has cooled with China, its largest trading partner and main benefactor. This contrasts sharply with Pyongyang's growing military cooperation with Moscow.
North Korea-China trade has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels and the New Yalu River Bridge connecting the two countries remains unopened to the present day, according to Cha Du-hyeogn, principal fellow of Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
A recent sign of Pyongyang's strained ties with Beijing is its downplaying of Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Year greeting to Kim Jong-un, while treating Russian President Vladimir Putin's greeting as major news.
In recent months, China has sought to improve ties with its neighbor, including South Korea and Japan. In November, Beijing made a surprise announcement that it would waive visa requirements for visitors from South Korea in a bid to enhance people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.
At a meeting on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, in November, Xi told U.S. President Joe Biden that China would not allow “conflict and turmoil” to happen on the Korean Peninsula and will not “sit idly by when its strategic security and core interests are under threat.”
“It was the first time Xi publicly stated China's will to intervene in issues related to the Korean Peninsula. Although North Korea designated the South as its principal enemy, China is focusing on improving — not just managing — ties with Seoul,” said Kim Heung-kyu, professor of political science and diplomacy and director of the U.S.-China Policy Institute at Ajou University.
“They believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance could weaken under the next Trump administration and the strategic balance on the Korean Peninsula is crumbling. Under such circumstances, China is focused on economic incentives and its persistent global influence. So working with neighboring countries for stability is important.”
Acting President Choi Sang-mok, center, poses with newly appointed Chinese Ambassador to Korea Dai Bing, left, and Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul during a ceremony to receive the envoy's credentials at the Government Complex Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap
China has defied some predictions by promptly appointing China's new ambassador to Korea, Dai Bing, who took office on Dec. 27.
Many believed China might delay the appointment of its envoy after the process of appointing former presidential chief of staff Kim Dae-ki as South Korea's new ambassador to China was suspended due to President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment.
Dai presented the Letter of Credence to acting President Choi Sang-mok, Tuesday, and reflected on Korea's resilience amid its political uncertainty in the wake of the impeachment.
“China and the ROK are friendly neighbors and important partners. And we have been committed to advancing our strategic cooperative partnership. I have great belief in the wisdom and capability of the ROK people to address their current challenges, and I sincerely wish for the stability, development and prosperity of the ROK and its people,” Dai wrote on X. ROK refers to the acronym of South Korea's formal name, the Republic of Korea.
Kang Jun-young, a Chinese studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said South Korea's political crisis and the Trump administration's policies toward China will be key factors in Seoul-Beijing relations.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping take a walk during the latter's visit to Pyongyang in this June 2019 photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
“Reciprocity is an important aspect of diplomacy. I think Chinese authorities are cautious about discussing matters with Korean Ambassador to China Chung Jae-ho, who is a confidant of Yoon. This kind of imbalance resulting from South Korea's leadership void will continue. We must resolve the leadership crisis to normalize ties with China and make sure Xi attends the APEC summit in November,” Kang said.
South Korea will host the next Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, later this year.
He predicted that pressure from Trump on China will persist throughout the next four years, compelling China to seek closer alignment with South Korea. Due to the South Korea-U.S. alliance, some say the scope for South Korea's cooperation with China will be limited, regardless of whether a liberal or conservative wins the next presidency.
“We have no reason to neglect China's outreach. However, South Korea's alignment efforts with the Trump administration may derail Seoul-Beijing ties. It's important to maintain a strategic cooperative partnership with China as well as reaffirming the alliance with the U.S.,” Kang said.