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Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," famously predicted in 2001 that the Communist Party would fall from power in a decade.
When 2011 came with the party still firmly in the saddle, he confessed his mistake and said: "I admit it: my prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year."
"Instead of 2011," he wrote in Foreign Policy magazine on Dec. 29, 2011, "the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it."
As a result, he made Foreign Policy's "10 worst predictions of the year" twice in a row.
Now it is 2013, and Chang is no longer predicting collapse. Instead, he is merely saying that China's "growth in 2013 is unlikely to meet forecasts," such as those by the World Bank that the Chinese economy would expand 8.4 percent.
But while Chang may have given up on making further dire predictions, at least for the time being, others have stepped into the breech. And they are the leaders of the party, no less.
President Hu Jintao, in his report in November to the 18th party congress, called on the party to combat corruption because "if we fail to handle this issue well, it could prove fatal to the party, and even cause the collapse of the party and the fall of the state."
Xi Jinping, in his first address after being chosen as the new party leader, dwelled on the same theme, warning that officials need to guard against the spread of corruption or it would "doom the party and the state."
These are grave warnings indeed. In fact, they echo words spoken by Chiang Kai-shek, the Nationalist leader who lost the civil war to the Communists more than six decades ago.
In the film "The Founding of a Republic," produced in 2009 to mark the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, Chiang said during the waning days of his government: "If we fight corruption, we'll destroy the party; if we don't fight corruption, we'll destroy the nation."
Chiang opted not to fight corruption, and lost the mainland to the Communists.
Nor is corruption the only threat to the Communist party's survival. Other threats identified by Xi include the party "losing touch with the people's concerns" and "formalism."
Significantly, in Xi's view, the absence of democracy is another major threat to the party being able to maintain its position as the leader of China.
This emerged last week when Xi met with representatives of the eight so-called "democratic parties" in China ― formed in the 1930s and 1940s ― which all support the leadership of the Communist Party. Today, they are financed by the communist party and play a largely ornamental role.
In the meeting, Xi recalled a conversation in 1945 between Mao Zedong and Huang Yanpei, a founder of the China Democratic League, which at the time was not allied with either the Communists or the Nationalists.
Huang noted that in Chinese history there had been many cases of dynasties that were dynamic at the beginning but ultimately fell because they lacked staying power. Wouldn't the same thing happen to the communists?
Mao assured Huang that would not happen to the Communist Party, because it had a secret weapon: democracy. Mao said as long as the party was under the supervision of the people, it would never slacken.
Of course, after the communists gained power, Mao did not subject himself to the people's supervision. Instead, he created a personality cult whereby the people worshipped him.
But Xi's recollection of the conversation suggests that he is mindful of the role the people play in a democracy, and its importance.
Bloomberg News, in a report last week called "Mapping China's Red Nobility," tracked over 100 descendants of a group of senior leaders known as the "Eight Immortals" ― now all deceased ― who have accumulated incredible wealth and, with it, power.
Bloomberg had, earlier in the year, reported that Xi's own relatives controlled hundreds of millions of dollars in assets but did not suggest that Xi himself was tainted.
Xi, undoubtedly, wants to transform the party but his task is daunting. When Mao was alive, his word was law. Today, there is no strongman in China. There is general agreement that the party will collapse if it is not reformed but how is Xi going to do it?
Without predicting collapse, it seems safe to say that the coming months and years will be interesting.
Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator based in Hong Kong. Email the writer at frank.ching@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @FrankChing1.
