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It's time to push bolder immigration policy
It's no wonder that one calls Korea ― with 1.7 million immigrants or just 3 percent of its 50 million people ― a highly homogenous country. But Korea's demographic profile will change drastically if the government carries out policy proposals made by a private think tank.
In a report released earlier this week, the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI) forecast that Korea would need more than 15 million immigrants ― nearly a third of its current population ― by 2060 to sustain its growth. The report says Korea needs 600,000 immigrants in 2020, 4.3 million in 2030, 11.8 million in 2050 and 15.3 million in 2060.
This forecast is based on the assumption that the nation's working-age population ― those aged 15 to 64 ― will begin declining in 2017 because of its low birthrate and rapidly aging population. With the working-age population forecast to dip to 56 percent of the total population, Korea's potential growth rate would fall to the 2-percent range in the early 2020s before tumbling further below 1 percent in the late 2050s.
It's not difficult for KERI under the auspices of the Federation of Korean Industries, a lobby for large conglomerates, to take special note of immigration. That's because Korea has no other alternative unless there are dramatic changes such as unification with North Korea.
Of course, it might be possible to ease the workforce shortage by raising the birthrate, expanding job opportunities for women or making the best use of retirees, but these have their own limitations.
Take the birthrate, for instance. Korea's rate ― the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime ― was among the world's lowest at 1.19 last year, the first drop since 2009, despite the government's huge spending. Now it appears impossible to raise the rate to 2.1, the number needed to maintain the current population.
The message of the report is clear: the disaster of population decrease will become a reality unless Korea hurries to tackle the problem with a bolder immigration policy.
Other countries set a good example. While immigrants account for only 3 percent of the population in Korea, some industrialized nations have been addressing labor shortages by opening themselves wider to immigrants. Even Japan, which had stubbornly resisted the inflow of immigrants, reversed its policy in June and decided to embrace more foreign workers.
What's urgently needed is to adopt a completely forward-looking policy toward immigrants with the stark realization that immigration could be the only viable option to sustain growth. Specifically, the government needs to create an independent immigration agency so that policies can be dealt with comprehensively.
In 2011, the government studied the possibility of creating such an organization, but the plan fizzled out for unclear reasons. This time around, however, the immigration office should be created.
All this raises the need for our policymakers and politicians to be more resolute, given Koreans' entrenched xenophobia and antagonism toward immigrants. Otherwise, Korea will miss an opportunity to streamline its immigration policy again.
