A view of Panmunjom in Paju, Nov. 29, 2022 / Joint Press Corps

It's often said that 34,000 North Korean refugees live in South Korea. But how accurate is that claim? And can the number be known?

For example, The Diplomat wrote, "It's hardly surprising that many of the 34,000 North Koreans in the South report feeling lonely and isolated." The Asia Foundation noted, "There are almost 34,000 North Korean refugees in South Korea." A 2023 MSN/The Telegraph article described one refugee as "one of the 34,000 North Koreans who now live in South Korea." A U.S. congressional testimony in 2023 asserted, "Today, there are 34,000 defectors living in South Korea." Even The Korea Times stated in July 2024, "Currently, about 34,000 North Korean defectors reside in South Korea."

The 34,000 figure is cumulative since the late 1990s — not current — and the actual number of North Korean refugees currently living in South Korea is likely lower because of deaths, disappearances, re-defections, and onward migration. The South Korean government publishes arrival statistics, but is there comprehensive tracking of who remains in the country long-term?

First of all, the 34,000 number is probably lower because some North Korean refugees have committed suicide, died of illness or natural causes, or been murdered. Life in South Korea isn't always easy for North Korean refugees. Many struggle with economic hardship, discrimination, and mental health challenges, leading to alarmingly high suicide rates. According to multiple reports and as I discussed in a workshop at the Harvard Graduate School of Education on March 1, the suicide rate among North Korean refugees is three times higher than that of native South Koreans. Suicide, homicide, death from illness or natural causes means not all of the North Korean refugees who have escaped to South Korea are still alive.

Second, not all North Korean refugees settle permanently in South Korea. Many later relocate to other countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Germany and Australia. A 2022 report by the Refugee Council UK highlighted that a growing number of North Korean refugees have sought asylum in the UK, with over 700 North Korean refugees estimated to be living there. But there would have been more, if it had been up to North Korean refugees. More than one-third of the 1,300 asylum applications by North Korean refugees to the U.K. government were rejected between 2003 and 2018.

By 2018, Canadian authorities initiated the deportation of 242 North Koreans and were in the process of deporting an additional 512 after discovering many had already obtained South Korean citizenship before moving to Canada. The Diplomat reported in 2015 that Belgium rejected 99 out of 126 asylum claims. The Netherlands and France were even more stringent, rejecting all the applications they processed (128 and 19, respectively) from North Korean exiles. The United States has accepted slightly more than 200 since 2006, but 107 out of 238 North Korean applicants from 2004 to 2010 abandoned their asylum applications because of paperwork and delays.

The point of those statistics? Many North Korean refugees have tried to avoid or leave South Korea by migrating to other countries. South Korea is not always the final destination although more than 34,000 have registered with the South Korean government.

Third, about 700 North Korean refugees are currently unaccounted for, according to a 2023 Korea JoongAng Daily report. This could mean several things. Some may have gone into hiding due to fear of North Korean spies or pressure from Pyongyang. Some may have illegally migrated to another country. Some may have died under unrecorded circumstances — whether due to suicide, accidents, or illness. After North Korean refugees finish the Hanawon program and settle, some attempt to move abroad, change their names, or cut off contact — making it difficult to get a reliable headcount of current residents. South Korean officials have said that the majority of the unaccounted-for refugees are believed to have moved to third countries, often without formally notifying authorities.

Fourth, this is probably a small number, but according to the Ministry of Unification (MoU), about 30 defectors in total were confirmed to have gone back to North Korea from 2012 through 2021. But no one knows how many have returned because such people are unlikely to notify the authorities. According to reports, some returnees were lured back through propaganda efforts or by threats against their family members still in North Korea.

Some returnees have reappeared in North Korean media to denounce the South, while others have disappeared entirely, raising concerns of imprisonment or execution. The true number of returnees may be higher, as others could have gone back through China undetected.

I know of several cases of North Korean refugees who returned to China and were jailed and at risk of being returned to North Korea before they were eventually set free. None of those cases were reported in the media and there are probably many other cases that have gone unreported.

As an aside, I am connected to one of the cases -- Lim Ji-hyun, a North Korean refugee who returned to North Korea in 2017. I was quoted by CNN, WRAL News, and the Guardian, and then later heard that I had been shown on North Korean TV in connection to her testimonial as she denounced former colleagues and others allegedly up to no good in South Korea. That case was a stark reminder that even highly visible refugees — those featured in South Korean media and supported by advocacy groups —are not immune to re-defection.

A better way to phrase it? "More than 34,000 North Korean refugees have escaped to South Korea since the late 1990s." Or "More than 34,000 North Korean refugees have registered with the South Korean government." The real population of North Korean refugees may be lower due to deaths, re-defections, unreported departures and missing persons.

Casey Lartigue Jr. (CJL@alumni.harvard.edu) is the co-founder of Freedom Speakers International with Lee Eun-koo; and co-author with Han Song-mi of her memoir "Greenlight to Freedom: A North Korean Daughter's Search for Her Mother and Herself.