Chun In-bum

Korea faces one of the gravest political crises in its modern history following President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration of martial law on Dec. 3. What began as a shocking announcement has since unraveled into a web of revelations, political strife and public uncertainty. Ten days into this state of emergency, the nation stands at a crossroads, with its democratic institutions tested like never before.

A coup in disguise?

The evidence increasingly points to the martial law declaration being less about protecting the republic and more about consolidating power. Yoon, alongside former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, appears to have orchestrated what I am calling a "palace coup." This betrayal of democratic norms has sent shockwaves throughout the nation. While Yoon continues to justify his actions as necessary to "protect the republic from criminals," the mounting evidence suggests otherwise.

Public reaction has been mixed. Polls indicate that at least 10 percent of the population supports Yoon's actions — a minority, but a significant one. This group appears driven by either ideological alignment or belief in Yoon's narrative of preserving national stability and distaste for the unilateral actions of the opposition party. However, the overwhelming majority of Koreans view these actions as a blatant overreach of power, and protests against martial law have swelled across the country.

The political fallout

The political ramifications have been equally dramatic. The People Power Party (PPP), Yoon's political base, is deeply divided. This division became evident during the election of a new House representative following the resignation of the previous representative. The party elected Rep. Kweon Seong-dong, a staunch supporter of Yoon, with 72 votes, while 34 PPP lawmakers backed his opponent. This split within the PPP mirrors the broader political fragmentation evident in Korea.

The PPP's internal division has also impacted the impeachment process. On Dec. 5, the opposition fell five votes short of the majority needed to impeach Yoon. However, momentum is shifting. Seven PPP lawmakers have now openly declared their support for impeachment, signaling that a second vote scheduled for Dec. 14 may succeed. With each passing day, the inevitability of Yoon's impeachment grows, raising questions about the long-term stability of the PPP and its leadership.

A government in disarray

The fallout extends beyond politics. Investigations target much of Yoon's administration, including the prime minister, who has become a symbol of government dysfunction. Former Defense Minister Kim is in jail and even attempted to take his life on Dec. 11, an act that underscores the pressure faced by those implicated in the coup. Both the national police chief and Seoul's police chief are also under investigation, highlighting the widespread nature of the crisis.

Amid this turmoil, one institution has surprisingly garnered public praise: the Republic of Korea's military. While the military leadership is in disarray, soldiers on the ground have conducted themselves with professionalism, earning the respect of the public. However, the same cannot be said for senior military commanders. Some, implicated in the failed martial law, have bypassed the chain of command to share their views, setting a dangerous precedent. The chief of staff of the Army, who had no prior knowledge of the coup but held the title of "martial law commander," has been relieved of duty, further adding to the military's leadership vacuum.

The role of public sentiment

The conduct of soldiers during this crisis has been a rare bright spot, but public sentiment remains deeply divided. Yoon's supporters view him as a protector of the republic, while his detractors see him as a threat to democracy. This polarization is mirrored within the PPP, where factions have formed around loyalty to Yoon or adherence to democratic principles.

The public's reaction to the impeachment process will be pivotal. If the opposition succeeds in securing the necessary votes, it will mark a significant victory for democratic accountability. However, the process itself risks further dividing the nation, particularly if Yoon's supporters refuse to accept the outcome.

Broader implications

The crisis has far-reaching implications beyond Korea's borders. Internationally, the declaration of martial law has raised concerns among allies about the stability of Korea's democratic institutions. Domestically, the economic impact is already being felt, with investor confidence shaken and uncertainty looming over key industries. The crisis has also exposed vulnerabilities within Korea's political and military leadership, raising questions about their readiness to handle future challenges.

Looking ahead

As the nation braces for the second impeachment vote, the stakes could not be higher. The opposition must secure at least eight votes from the PPP, a challenging but increasingly plausible scenario given the growing dissent within Yoon's party. Even if the impeachment does not pass on Dec. 14, the momentum suggests that Yoon's tenure is nearing its end.

What comes next is equally critical. The next administration will need to rebuild public trust, address divisions within the military and police, and ensure that democratic institutions are safeguarded against future threats. This will require not only competent leadership but also a collective commitment from all political actors to prioritize the nation's long-term stability over short-term gains.

Conclusion

The events of the past 10 days have tested Korea's democracy like never before. Yoon's declaration of martial law has exposed deep fractures within the nation's political, military and social fabric. While the path forward remains uncertain, the resilience of Korea's democratic institutions offers hope. The coming days and weeks will determine whether the Republic can emerge stronger from this crisis or whether it will succumb to the forces threatening its foundation.

Korea stands at a crossroads. Its people and leaders must now decide which path to take: one of accountability, reform and unity, or one of division, distrust and further turmoil. The world is watching.

Chun In-bum (truechun@naver.com) served as a lieutenant general in the ROK Army and was commander of Special Forces Korea.