Gold prices, which surged dramatically throughout last year, are poised to continue their ascent in the months ahead, sparking heightened interest and anticipation among investors.
Experts suggest that escalating macroeconomic uncertainties — driven by the anticipated inauguration of the Donald Trump administration, intensifying U.S.-China tensions, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine — are fueling a growing preference for safe-haven assets.
They also advise that this may be an opportune time to buy gold, anticipating continued price increases.
Gold prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged from $2,071.8 per ounce at the start of 2024 to $2,621 per ounce on Dec. 31, the year's final trading day — an impressive 26 percent increase. This marks the largest annual gain recorded in the 21st century.
The gold price rally was attributed to a buying spree by central banks worldwide throughout the year, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties.
"Following the asset freeze measures imposed on the Russian central bank by Western countries in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, net gold purchases by central banks have significantly increased, particularly in emerging markets," Lee Yoon-ah, a researcher at the Bank of Korea, said.
"Recently, Eastern European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary have also been increasing their gold purchases as a precaution against potential instability in the U.S. dollar system."
According to a survey conducted by the World Gold Council in June last year, 29 percent of central banks from 68 nations indicated their intention to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months. This marks the highest proportion since the council began conducting the survey in 2018.
Global investment banks, including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, also predicted that gold prices will continue to soar in 2025, setting a target price of $3,000 per ounce.
A key factor driving the anticipated rise in gold prices this year is the U.S. Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts.
Since gold does not generate interest income, higher interest rates usually make bonds more attractive than gold, while lower interest rates tend to boost demand for gold as an investment.
Accordingly, analysts suggest that funds from money market funds, which primarily invest in short-term government bonds, are likely to flow into the gold market as the Fed reduces interest rates.
"The outlook for strong gold prices remains intact. While a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could negatively impact gold prices, the Fed's rate-cutting stance is expected to favorably support them," Mirae Asset Securities analyst Park Hee-chan said.
"The belief that de-dollarization efforts led by China and Russia will provide long-term support for gold prices remains unchanged."
NH Investment & Securities analyst Hwang Byung-jin said, "As long as the Fed does not revert to a tightening monetary policy, the bullish cycle for gold remains valid. However, with some uncertainties lingering until Trump's inauguration as U.S. president, short-term gold investments are advised to follow a strategy of buying on dips during market corrections."