Supporters of President Yoon Suk Yeol hold a rally near his residential compound in Seoul, Monday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk

In the first several months after his inauguration in May 2022, President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating quickly fell below 40 percent in most polls and never recovered to that level again.

His controversial decision to declare martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, appeared to seal his fate as a failed leader rejected by the people including those who voted for him, with some surveys showing his popularity plunging to as low as 11 percent.

However, in an unexpected turn of events, his approval rating is now bouncing back — surpassing the levels seen before the martial law declaration.

A poll conducted between Jan. 3 and 4 by KOPRA found that 40 percent of respondents supported Yoon. In a poll conducted by the same pollster four months ago, 30 percent did.

In another survey released on Monday by Realmeter, his party also enjoyed a jump in support, with 34.4 percent saying they support the ruling People Power Party, up from 30.6 percent in a poll conducted a week earlier.

Meanwhile, the approval rating for the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) inched down to 45.2 percent from 45.8 percent in the Realmeter poll. The figure surged to 52.4 percent in the week that followed Yoon's six-hour imposition of military rule, and has been decreasing since.

These results indicate that the conservative voter bloc is becoming more united, driven by a shared distrust of the DPK and antipathy toward its leader, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, who is seen as a favorite to win the next presidential election, experts told The Korea Times.

"After the ousting of former President Park Geun-hye, the ruling bloc fell apart and suffered heavy losses in the elections that followed. Many conservatives fear that such a nightmarish scenario could be repeated if they remain divided," said Lee Joon-han, a professor of political science at Incheon National University. "With the DPK holding a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, they know the impact of its five-year control over the executive branch of government would be far more significant, and many are afraid of its consequences."

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks at his office in Seoul, Dec. 7, 2024, days after his decision to declare martial law. Courtesy of presidential office

When Park was embroiled in a crisis due to an influence-peddling scandal, which eventually led to her impeachment by the Assembly on Dec. 9, 2016, her approval rating plummeted to as low as 4 percent in some polls. But Yoon, despite committing a far more serious violation of the law and the Constitution in the eyes of many, has not suffered the same levels of backlash.

That's probably because Yoon, unlike Park who remained largely silent on her impeachment, has been proactive in galvanizing and uniting his base, said Kim Sung-soo, a professor of political science and diplomacy at Hanyang University.

"Yoon has repeatedly vowed to fight, a message that has helped unite his supporters as well as many of those who have negative views of the DPK," the scholar said. "While many share their criticisms of Yoon, others are disenchanted with the DPK over its apparent attempt to disrupt government operations through impeachment of 29 top-ranking officials such as ministers and through budget reduction … Yoon provided an opportunity to express their frustration toward that party by presenting himself as a platform-like figure to do so."

According to a poll carried out by Hankook Research at The Korea Times' request last month, Lee, the DPK chairman, was found to be a favorite to win the next presidential election, with 35 percent supporting him.

But it is possible that Lee could be banned from running for public office, as he is standing trial for 12 criminal charges, including an election law violation for which he was convicted two months ago.

Under the Supreme Court's guidelines, the trial for his election law violation is expected to finish five months from now. If the conviction stands, he will be stripped of the right to run for public office for 10 years. This would mean a de facto end to the 61-year-old's political career.