U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends Turning Point USA's AmericaFest in Phoenix, Ariz., Dec. 22, 2024. Reuters-Yonhap

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will officially return to power with his inauguration ceremony on Monday (local time), four years after leaving the White House. His comeback is expected to have a significant impact on U.S. allies around the world, many of whom remain wary of the Republican leader's unorthodox foreign policies.

In South Korea, however, there seems to be little preparation for Trump's return as the nation is grappling with a political crisis.

President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose duties have been suspended, is battling for his political survival amid impeachment proceedings at the Constitutional Court over his failed martial law declaration late last year.

If the court upholds Yoon's impeachment, South Koreans will head to the polls for a snap presidential election. Even if the embattled president survives, his ability to govern is expected to be severely weakened. Yoon's remaining term would likely be marked by diminished influence, with public trust in him greatly eroded by the fallout from his martial law declaration.

Yet even without the leadership void, analysts suggest that the Korean Peninsula is unlikely to be a priority for Trump, as his administration will likely focus on other pressing global issues, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

Then-President Moon Jae-in and then-U.S. President Donald Trump visit the demilitarized zone (DMZ) in Panmunjom, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, in this June 30, 2019 file photo. Yonhap

"Right now, I would argue Korean affairs are something the Trump team is not tracking on a day-to-day basis. They are focused on about six to eight other issues before these even track on their radar," said Harry Kazianis, president of the Rogue States Project, a security think tank.

"The sad reality is that Korea has dropped out of the top five issues Democrats and Republicans care about since late 2019," he added.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, head of the Department of International Relations at King's College London, viewed that summit-level exchanges between Washington and Seoul will be delayed, saying, "I assume that Trump himself will wait until South Korea has a new president to hold a high-level meeting."

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok is currently serving as acting president, but his authority and diplomatic experience are limited. Considering Trump's tendency to sit down with prominent leaders, he may be hesitant to meet with the interim leader.

Although not immediately, Trump may eventually shift his focus back to the Korean Peninsula, especially if the Ukraine war subsides, as addressing North Korea's nuclear threats remains one of his unfinished legacies.

In the meantime, analysts suggest that leveraging business partnerships and political ties could be a practical way for South Korea to build ties with the Trump administration.

Henry Haggard, a senior advisor at Washington-based consulting firm, WestExec Advisors, and a former U.S. State Department official, encouraged Korean business conglomerates to play a role in bolstering the alliance.

"Companies like Hyundai Motor, in its recent $8 billion investment announcement, are indeed stepping up to ensure the Trump team sees that the South Korea of 2025 is different than the South Korea of 2021," Haggard said. "There are over 100 billion reasons why South Korea of today is more important to the U.S., and that is the over $100 billion of foreign direct investment that South Korean companies have sent to the U.S. in the last several years."

Kazianis recommended that politicians from both wings should send delegations to Mar-a-Lago, Trump's residence, as soon as possible to get South Korea back on his radar, saying, "The best strategy for South Korea is to make personal connections with Trump and his team."

A military helicopter flies over U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, April 18, 2022, during joint exercises with South Korea. Yonhap

However, when South Korea comes back under Trump's radar, things may not necessarily be favorable for Seoul.

A key concern for the Asian nation is whether the Republican leader will once again demand a substantial increase in Seoul's contribution to the cost of stationing 25,800 U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops on the peninsula.

During his first term, Trump demanded that Seoul increase its share of defense costs from $900 million to $5 billion, straining the bilateral alliance. During his recent campaign, he openly expressed discontent with what he perceives as insufficient contributions from a wealthy ally.

More recently, Trump's Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth emphasized the need for increased burden sharing among America's allies.

"The United States maintains the strongest alliance system in the world, and the common defense of our mutual interests with our allies and partners creates an unmatched strategic advantage," he said in written answers submitted to the Senate ahead of his confirmation hearing last week.

Hegseth added, "Increased ally and partner defense spending and burden sharing are critical to ensuring that our relationships are not one-sided."

While the nominee did not specifically mention the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), his remarks align with Trump's repeated calls for greater financial contributions from Seoul.

U.S. Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth speaks during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington, Jan. 14 (local time). EPA-Yonhap

"It would not surprise me if Trump revisited the cost-sharing issue. The Joe Biden administration negotiated the current deal a year early to avoid negotiating with a Trump administration which, in my view, put a bullseye on the deal," Haggard said.

Last October, South Korea and the U.S. signed the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which outlines Seoul's financial contribution to the cost of stationing USFK troops starting in 2026, marking an 8.3 percent increase from 2025. The agreement was finalized ahead of schedule, with many interpreting it as a move by the allies to safeguard it from being renegotiated during Trump's potential return to office.

"I think that Trump will want to renegotiate the cost-sharing agreement, since previously he stated that South Korea should pay even more. I don't think that this will be affected by the political situation in South Korea," Pacheco Pardo said.

Trump could also push to scale down the regular South Korea-U.S. joint military drills as a precondition to resume talks with Pyongyang.

"I do see Trump — if he ends the Ukraine war — could start to refocus on Korea and demand an end to large 'war games' and training with South Korea, seeing it as provocative and making North Korea upset," Kazianis said.

Meanwhile, South Korea may not need to worry too much about Trump potentially reversing U.S. security commitments made under Biden, according to the experts, who viewed that the Washington Declaration and the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) are expected to remain intact.

This is largely because, from Trump's perspective — where the main priority is deterring China's threats — the security partnership with South Korea remains of significant value.

"Trump's laser focus on China means he will hope South Korea will remain able to stand with the U.S. on important China-related policy issues ... The Trump team will accept the Washington Declaration, NCG and trilateral partnership with Japan to the extent they support Trump's goal of competing more effectively with China," Haggard said.