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TRUMP 2.0Will world see another Trump-Kim bromance?

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Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un look at each other before their meeting in the South Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Panmunjeom, June 30, 2019. AFP-Yonhap

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un look at each other before their meeting in the South Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Panmunjeom, June 30, 2019. AFP-Yonhap

Incoming US leader likely to focus on freezing NK nukes over complete denuclearization
By Lee Hyo-jin

As U.S. President Donald Trump's return to power is expected to reshape the global landscape, one key question lingers: Will the world witness another bromance between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un?

Although North Korea may not be at the top of the incoming American leader's agenda amid other pressing global issues, analysts say that Trump may eventually seek to revisit his unfinished business with Kim, following their failed summit in Hanoi in 2019.

In the latest campaign trails, the outspoken Republican boasted his personal ties with Kim and the "love letters" they previously exchanged, claiming that the North Korean leader would be missing him.

However, Trump now faces a tougher, more emboldened Kim.

The reclusive regime has significantly advanced its nuclear weapons capabilities since Trump's first tenure. Adding a new complex layer to the equation is Russia, which has emerged as North Korea's main backer with their burgeoning military ties.

"From Kim Jong-un's perspective, even though he is still disappointed by the failed negotiations, Trump's return is an opportunity. While he outwardly says he won't negotiate with any U.S. governments, Kim would think that negotiating with Trump, rather than any other U.S. leader, offers the highest possibility of achieving sanctions relief," said Lim Eul-chul, an expert on North Korea at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-run think tank, viewed that Trump could reach out to Kim sooner than expected.

"Trump appears to be prioritizing global affairs over domestic issues for now. Early in his term, he's likely to focus on resolving the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and North Korea's nuclear threats — a 'triple crown' that could earn him a Nobel Peace Prize nomination," Cho said.

Pyongyang also appears to be signaling for reengagement with Washington.

Days before Trump's inauguration, North Korea fired several missiles on Jan. 6 and 14. These latest shows of force were seen by some as an attempt to escalate tensions ahead of Trump's return and draw his attention.

North Korea launches what it claimed to be a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile from an unidentified location in Pyongyang, Jan. 6, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap

North Korea launches what it claimed to be a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile from an unidentified location in Pyongyang, Jan. 6, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap

However, even if negotiations resume, experts see it as unlikely to achieve the ultimate goal of completely denuclearizing North Korea. This long-standing objective of the U.S. government on the Korean Peninsula has become increasingly elusive.

Trump would seek to secure tangible achievements this time, as it is his last term in office.

As such, managing North Korea's nuclear threats through a disarmament deal to ease direct threats to Washington might sound more pragmatic than pursuing the increasingly elusive goal of complete denuclearization.

"Trump is likely to start with smaller deals, such as an arms control agreement or disarmament. But given the ongoing stalemate on the Korean Peninsula, I would consider these achievements to be 'big deals,'" Lim said.

Cho offered a similar analysis, saying that Trump's focus will likely be on nuclear disarmament.

"If a 'Hanoi summit season 2' were to happen, Trump is likely to accept a reduction or freeze of the North's nuclear capabilities," he said. "He now understands that nuclear disarmament is a more realistic goal than denuclearizing Pyongyang."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Ju-ae attend a New Year celebration event in Pyongyang,  in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 1. Yonhap

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter Ju-ae attend a New Year celebration event in Pyongyang, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 1. Yonhap

If U.S.-North Korea diplomacy, which has been long-stalled, were to resume, Kim would hope the Trump administration would recognize North Korea as a nuclear state — a designation the regime has long sought.

Trump's Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth described North Korea as a "nuclear power" in written answers submitted to the Senate ahead of his confirmation hearing on Jan. 15.

"The DPRK's status as a nuclear power, its intense focus on increasing the range of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads and its growing cyber capabilities all pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region and globally," he wrote, referring to North Korea by its official name the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Hegseth's comments immediately sparked controversy among officials in Seoul as it marked a departure from the previous stance of U.S. officials, who have consistently refused to publicly recognize North Korea as a nuclear power state.

Another variable in a potential Trump-Kim dialogue is Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Unlike in 2019, Kim now has a reliable ally in Putin, who appears to have promised to deliver what Kim wants — whatever that may be — in exchange for thousands of North Korean troops dispatched to support Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

"I don't expect Pyongyang-Moscow ties to block North Korea from engaging with the U.S. Instead, Kim is likely to leverage the North Korea-Russia alliance as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington," Lim said.

The expert added that Kim is likely to walk a fine line between Putin and Trump, trying not to spoil his relationship with the Russian leader in case talks with Trump fall through again.

Lee Hyo-jin lhj@koreatimes.co.kr


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