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Korea overtakes Japan in per capita GDP on improved trade terms

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Extra budget, key rate cut needed to boost economy: experts
By Lee Kyung-min

Korea registered a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) estimate of $36,024 for last year, outstripping Japan and Taiwan, data from the finance ministry and central bank showed Sunday.

Underpinning the seemingly robust performance was improvement in trade terms. Higher export prices of semiconductors, coupled with lower import prices of raw materials such as crude oil, bolstered the country's output.

This led to a 3.8 percent rise last year in the GDP deflator, a broader indicator of inflation compared to the consumer price index (CPI).

The higher the figure, the greater the GDP. Still, a rise in the GDP deflator does not necessarily indicate actual growth in the quantity of goods and services produced but rather a reflection of higher prices.

Experts say the increase in the output is explained in large part by rising prices, a factor wildly undermined by the prolonged economic downturn in the post-pandemic years of rapid monetary tightening and the resulting high borrowing costs.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Bank of Korea (BOK), the per capita GDP for 2024 is projected at $36,024, up $454, or 1.28 percent, compared to a year earlier.

The figures for Japan and Taiwan, according to an estimate by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are $32,859 and $33,234, respectively.

The otherwise solid output was offset by a year-on-year plunge of nearly 60 won in the Korean currency against the U.S. dollar. Had the currency remained at 1,305 won per dollar in 2023, the figure would have climbed to $37,641.

The government expects this year's GDP to inch up further to $37,441, applying this year's estimated nominal growth rate of 3.8 percent and assuming the exchange rate remains at the same level as last year.

Korea's figure first exceeded $30,000 in 2016.

It has since risen to $35,359 in 2018, before sliding to $33,594 in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The figure increased to a peak of $37,503 in 2021, buoyed by a variety of government measures to boost consumption as part of economic stimulus packages, eased social distancing mandates and a strong growth in exports.

Chang Jae-chul, a former economist at Citibank Korea and KB Securities, said higher export prices may help boost nominal GDP, but only if that extra income from exports is distributed within the economy across the board, which is clearly not the case.

"Higher export income can lead to a stronger overall economy, which in turn can strengthen the job market and healthy wage growth," Chang said. "But it takes time."

An extra budget of up to 30 trillion won ($20 billion) is needed to boost the economy, in his view.

"The economic growth is undershooting the previous forecast and expected to barely meet the potential growth of 2 percent. An extra budget for the targeted sectors can help boost the economy," he said.

Equally important is a key rate cut by the central bank, according to Joo Won of Hyundai Research Institute.

"The extended slowdown in the economy must be weathered by monetary easing, a rate dynamic complicated by the U.S. Federal Reserve holding with a strong tightening bias. The BOK will face a daunting task of balancing the factors from within the country and abroad," Joo said.

Lee Kyung-min lkm@koreatimes.co.kr


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