A sign for a medical school in Seoul, Feb. 19 / Yonhap

With only days remaining before the new semester begins, medical schools in Korea are facing unprecedented difficulties due to a standoff between the government and doctors regarding student quotas, leaving them in a state of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the government has raised the possibility of scrapping a planned increase in medical school admissions for next year as a way to address a prolonged dispute with trainee doctors.

The Korean government sought to raise the medical school admissions quota to address a shortage of doctors, particularly in rural areas and essential medical fields like emergency care and pediatrics.

Thousands of students are on leave, and a surge in new admissions has raised concerns about how institutions will manage the increased student population. Issues such as faculty shortages, infrastructure limitations and bottlenecks in clinical training are amplifying worries about the quality of medical education in the coming years.

According to education authorities, Monday, discussions are underway with the Ministry of Education and the Korea Association of Medical Colleges (KAMC) to develop strategies to manage the simultaneous education of two groups of students.

Approximately 3,500 students from the 2024 class, who took a leave of absence in protest of the government's push to increase the medical school admissions quota, and 4,500 newly admitted students for 2025 will need to be educated simultaneously. Medical schools are preparing for a severe strain on resources, with experts warning of potential long-term disruptions to medical education.

To manage the influx, several models have been proposed, including a plan to shorten the pre-med curriculum for 2024-entry students from two years to 18 months, enabling them to graduate one semester earlier.

Despite these measures, bottlenecks in medical training appear unavoidable.

Under the proposed timeline, 2024-entry students will begin their regular coursework in their third year in February 2029, with 2025-entry students joining them in August of the same year. Alongside the existing 2023-entry students, this would result in a temporary overlap of three years of medical students undergoing clinical training simultaneously.

By the second half of 2029, an estimated 10,500 students will need to participate in hospital rotations — 1.75 times the usual number before the increase in the medical school quota. This surge could overwhelm hospitals, making it challenging to provide sufficient training and hands-on experience for all students.

Education Minister Lee Ju-ho, left, leads a video meeting with deans of medical schools nationwide at the education ministry's chamber in Government Complex Sejong, Feb. 13. Yonhap

At the heart of the crisis is the uncertainty over whether students who took a leave of absence last year will return to school.

All proposals under discussion by the KAMC are based on the assumption that 2024-entry students will resume their studies this semester. However, there is no clear indication that they will all return.

According to data provided to Rep. Jin Sun-mee of the Democratic Party of Korea by the Ministry of Education, only 1,495 students had submitted reinstatement applications as of Feb. 10, just 8.2 percent of the 18,343 medical students currently on leave. At three medical schools nationwide, not a single student has applied to return.

Efforts to encourage their return have so far been unsuccessful. The government previously assured students that they would not face academic penalties if they reenrolled, but the initiative has failed to draw significant numbers back to campus.

Despite growing concerns, the government has yet to finalize its stance on medical school quotas for 2026, deepening the ongoing conflict between the government and the medical sector.

While KAMC and medical school deans called for a temporary freeze for the quota at the pre-expansion level of 3,058 students, down 2,000 from this year, the education ministry has suggested allowing universities to set their own enrollment numbers based on internal capacity.

The education ministry has not officially finalized its decision on next year's medical school quota, but its stance appears less firm on increasing the number compared to last year.

The ministry emphasized that any decisions on medical school admissions require a broader social consensus among multiple stakeholders, involving the government, universities and doctors. This statement hints at the potential cancellation of the controversial admission increase for next year.