| North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks back at South Korean President Moon Jae-in, right, and U.S. President Donald Trump on his way back to the North across the Military Demarcation Line on June 30 after their meeting at Panmunjeom. Korea Times file |
By Do Je-hae
The next big question regarding the Korean Peninsula is whether U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will get together for a third summit before the U.S. presidential election in November.
Despite the rising tension on the peninsula due to North Korea's recent hostile actions and rhetoric, Seoul and Washington are not letting up on the possibility of an "October surprise." This is because a third U.S.-North Korea summit is seen as a crucial and timely political achievement for the leaders of South Korea and the U.S.
For President Moon Jae-in, the next few months are the only time he has to mediate, in cooperation with the Trump administration, any meaningful breakthrough for his "peace process" on the peninsula. Moon will remain in office until early 2022, but he will not be able to carry on a similar level of policy momentum after this year in the twilight of his presidency.
So President Moon has made it clear that he will continue to do all he can, during the time he has left, to mediate the talks between North Korea and the U.S. In a recent reshuffle, he filled his national security and diplomacy team with the nation's foremost experts and negotiators in dealing with North Korea. During the June 30 video conference with EU leaders, Moon also highlighted the need for a North Korea-U.S. summit.
"I am resolutely resolved not to backtrack on the hard-won advancement and achievement in inter-Korean relations. I will proceed with patience to maintain the momentum for talks among South Korea, North Korea and the U.S.," Moon said during the conference. "It is South Korea's hope that North Korea and the U.S. may resume their talks before the U.S. presidential election. We will do our utmost for North Korea and the U.S. to sit face to face before the U.S. presidential race." According to a senior presidential aide, the phrase "sit face to face" used in Moon's speech is meant specifically for Trump and Kim.
'Win-win summit'
Experts contacted by The Korea Times underlined that a third summit between Trump and Kim is not completely out of the picture yet, and that Moon's recent appointments on the national security and diplomacy team makes it clear that he will remain committed to actively mediating North Korea-U.S. talks and simultaneously seek improvement in inter-Korean relations.
"Clearly President Moon wants to strengthen his efforts at dialog with North Korea," said Donald Kirk, a veteran author and correspondent on the peninsula issue. "The appointment of Park Jie-won as director of National Intelligence Agency (NIS) makes that clear. Park has a long background in dealings with North Korea notably during Kim Dae-jung's presidency when Park had much to do with arranging the June 2000 summit. Other appointments also fall into the same pattern, including that of the new unification minister, who was once an activist student leader. The timing of these appointments is extremely interesting."
The appointments were announced only a few days ahead of U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun's July 7-10 visit to Seoul and Tokyo. "Why send Undersecretary Biegun all the way to Korea and Japan during a pandemic ― clearly raising expectations on North Korea ― if the Trump administration didn't have something up its diplomatic sleeve?" said Harry J. Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest.
Speculations are rising that a surprise summit in October ahead of the election could be arranged because resuming talks would be conducive to both Trump and Kim.
"Trump would be able to change the media narrative away from bad poll numbers and focus on China, his real enemy in Asia," Kazianis said. "Kim would get a chance to take North Korea's economy back from what has to be the near the brink thanks to sanctions, coronavirus and tough agricultural setbacks. It seems like a win-win for both sides and makes a lot of sense. The only question is can both sides give enough and forge a compromise?" Kazianis said.
Although foreign policy is not a core issue in the U.S. presidential election, another showdown between Trump and Kim is seen as useful for Trump, whose bid for reelection is increasingly looking like an uphill battle amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Push for 'small deal'
The most critical condition for a third summit would be for the U.S. and North Korea to negotiate mutually acceptable terms. The absence of a careful coordination was one of the key reasons behind the collapse of the second Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in February 2019, which ended without any deal on North Korea's denuclearization.
| President Moon Jae-in underlined the need for the U.S.-North Korea summit during a video conference with EU leaders at Cheong Wa Dae, June 30. Courtesy of Cheong Wa Dae |
In this regard, there has been media speculation here and in the U.S. about the possibility of the so-called "small deal" for exchanging a partial sanctions lift for some steps toward denuclearization to break the long deadlock in Pyongyang-Washington dialogue.
"North Korea getting rid of the Yongbyon nuclear facility and more and the U.S. allowing the removal of some of the sanctions and economic aid ― this is the only way for a win-win solution both for Trump and Kim," the NIS chief nominee Park said in a recent media interview before his nomination on July 3. "It will be good for Moon as well to contribute to this effort."
But there are also warnings against Moon' strong push for trying to resuscitate talks with the North ahead of the U.S. election because he will ultimately be the one blamed if another North Korea-U.S. summit fails to result in any kind of a meaningful deal.
| Kim Yo-jong, Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un during the September 2018 summit in Pyongyang/Korea Times file |
"Trump himself may be tempted about the summit idea because his approval ratings are sliding, but the overwhelming Washington strategic community will frown upon the attempt," said Lee Seong-hyon, director of Center for Chinese Studies at the Sejong Institute. "They will think Moon is, again, egging on Trump's ego to score a 'diplomatic victory,' timed at the upcoming election. Most of all, they hold the view that such a meeting will lead to another 'bad deal,' in which Pyongyang pretends to be going nuclear and Washington lifts sanctions. The blame will land on Moon, who has played an unsuccessful role as a mediator."