Supporters of President Yoon Suk Yeol gather in front of the National Human Rights Commission of Korea in central Seoul, Monday, urging the passage of a proposal to ensure the protection of defense rights in the presidential impeachment trial. Yonhap
Following President Yoon Suk Yeol's emergency martial law declaration on Dec. 3, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) experienced a sharp decline in its approval ratings. However, since the end of that month, support has been rebounding, with recent polls at times placing the PPP ahead of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), raising questions about the factors behind the trend.
There are various interpretations of this data.
Some experts argue that the rise in the ruling party's approval rating does not indicate an expansion of its support base but rather an overrepresentation of hardline supporters in polling samples. Others believe the political landscape has shifted to a full-scale ideological battle between conservatives and progressives. Another perspective is that young male voters in their 20s and 30s, who had distanced themselves from Yoon after his election, are now returning.
According to survey results from Realmeter over the past couple of months, the PPP's approval rating was around 32.3 percent in the fourth week of November, just before the martial law declaration. It then fell to 25.7 percent in the second week of December, right after the declaration.
The PPP's declining trend took a turn following the Dec. 27 impeachment of former acting President Han Duck-soo. After the motion to impeach Han passed in the fourth week of December, the PPP's approval rating rebounded to 30.6 percent. Subsequent events, including Yoon's arrest on Jan. 14, further rallied support for the ruling party.
As a result, in the latest Realmeter survey of 1,002 eligible voters nationwide, conducted Feb. 6 and 7 and released on Monday, the PPP surpassed the DPK as the preferred political party. The PPP received 42.8 percent support, while the DPK garnered 40.8 percent. When asked which party should lead the next administration, 45.2 percent favored the continuation of the ruling party's governance, while 49.2 percent preferred a shift in power to the opposition. The survey, conducted through an automated response system (ARS) using randomly generated phone numbers, had a response rate of 8.4 percent.
Overrepresentation of right-wing supporters
Shin Yul, a political commentator and professor at Myongji University, pointed out that ARS surveys tend to overrepresent hardline supporters and differ from general public sentiment, explaining that political enthusiasts are more likely to respond to ARS polls than moderates.
"When looking at polling numbers, it's important to distinguish between ARS and interview-based surveys. ARS surveys potentially skew the results in favor of highly engaged conservatives rather than the so-called shy conservatives, because dedicated supporters are more likely to respond. Who stays on the line for more than five minutes answering a robotic voice? The people who engage with ARS are naturally the most committed supporters," Shin told The Korea Times.
However, the professor added that while the ARS survey results do not fully reflect public sentiment, they could still indicate strong conservative mobilization. He emphasized that it is fair to say the situation is not unfavorable for Yoon or the PPP when looking at the overall trend, blaming this on the DPK's failure to ease public anxiety.
"Yoon's martial law declaration greatly caused public unrest, and the DPK should have focused on alleviating those concerns. But instead, they escalated tensions — impeaching Prime Minister Han and now threatening to impeach acting President Choi Sang-mok as well. This only deepened the sense of instability, leading to calls for a power balance, which helps explain the current shift," the professor noted.
Supporters of President Yoon Suk Yeol gather in front of the National Human Rights Commission of Korea in central Seoul, Monday, urging the passage of a proposal to ensure the protection of defense rights in the presidential impeachment trial. Yonhap
Discontent with DPK leader
Another important insight into the rising conservative trend is that DPK leader Lee Jae-myung's legal troubles and his unpopularity among the conservative bloc present a unifying factor for both hardline and moderate conservative voters.
Lee has been convicted of violating the Public Official Election Act for making false statements during his presidential campaign, leading to a two-year suspended prison sentence. He has also been indicted on charges of misusing public funds during his tenure as governor of Gyeonggi Province.
Even among those still angered by Yoon's martial law declaration, many remain uneasy about the prospect of a "President Lee Jae-myung." In this context, as Lee's potential victory in the next presidential election gains momentum, a temporary backlash may be contributing to the ruling party's rising approval ratings.
"Another reason is the increased focus on Lee's negative image," Shin said. "Previously, Yoon faced strong criticism, but after his impeachment, his negative image faded and is no longer at the forefront of public attention. As a result, many now view Lee as an unacceptable choice."
Similarly, PPP Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo stated during a press conference at the National Assembly late last month that the rise in the PPP's approval rating is actually "the result of people uniting against the idea of Lee Jae-myung becoming president."
This view aligns to some extent with Eom Kyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, who perceives the situation as escalating into a full-scale ideological battle between conservatives and progressives — a conflict between the two camps. According to Eom, the disapproval of Lee has acted as a unifying force for the conservative bloc.
He explained to The Korea Times that, traditionally in Korea, conservatives have made up around 35 percent of the population, while progressives account for about 27 percent, with the remainder identifying as moderates. This balance has generally remained steady, but the current political landscape, driven by the push to impeach Yoon, has evolved into a battleground between conservatism and progressivism. The biggest factor behind this shift, he noted, is the fear surrounding Lee, the main contender in the upcoming presidential election.
“The situation now is different from eight years ago during [former President] Park Geun-hye's impeachment. Back then, the DPK wasn't as dominant as it is today. Currently, the opposition holds 192 out of 300 seats. With Lee leading in the polls post-election, the combination of a strong opposition and fears of his presidency has deepened ideological divisions, driving the PPP's rapid rise. Even moderates and swing voters share concerns about Lee. People are asking, ‘If Lee declares martial law, how would we undo it?' That fear seems to be taking hold,” Eom explained.
Unlike the impeachment case against the former president, very few within the conservative camp supported impeachment this time. With the conservative party staying united, the situation has evolved into a full-scale ideological battle between conservatives and progressives.
He analyzed that current public sentiment regarding Yoon's impeachment ruling is divided roughly 60:40. In other words, 60 percent believe Yoon is primarily responsible for the martial law crisis, while 40 percent attribute it to Lee and the DPK's legislative dominance, which they view as the root cause of the situation.
The outer wall of the Seoul Western District Court is seen damaged, Jan. 20, a day after violent supporters of President Yoon Suk Yeol stormed the facility. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul
Men in their 20s-30s return to politics
The resurgence of political engagement among men in their 20s and 30s is also highlighted as a significant factor driving the increase in conservative support.
"Men in their 20s and 30s supported Yoon during the 2020 presidential election. However, they grew disillusioned with the government's actions and distanced themselves from politics, shifting to apathy. Voter turnout dropped significantly in the 2024 general elections, particularly among men in their 20s and 30s, whose turnout was more than 10 percentage points lower than that of women. After going through the impeachment process, they have reengaged, much like they did during the presidential election," Eom noted.
The participation of men in their 20s and 30s has been highly visible in recent events such as the Jan. 19 riot at Seoul Western District Court after a judge authorized an arrest warrant for the embattled president. In this context, a former official at the presidential office in Yongsan, who requested to be identified only by the surname Choi, explained to The Korea Times why right-wing support has been growing among young people.
"Younger people often view the political landscape as a choice between pro-U.S. and pro-China stances. The younger generation's perception of China, shaped by experiences like Beijing's retaliatory actions over the THAAD missile deployment and subsequent hallyu bans, sees China as a threat to our economy. They don't harbor strong resentment toward Japan, as they haven't directly experienced the issues. As a result, they reject the opposition party's pro-China and pro-North Korea rhetoric, and their support is driven by the belief that, when considering Korea's future, the country should lean pro-U.S., not toward China, which they view as detrimental," Choi said.
She further explained that many young people were initially disengaged from political issues before the martial law situation. However, as they began exploring the news on their own, many started questioning the DPK's ambiguous stance on issues like their opposition to the country's espionage laws. She also noted that incidents of violence, such as the riot at the court, could be exploited by some to incite internal chaos: "It seems there are internal agents provoking young, energetic men in their 20s," she said.
YouTubers prepare to film a rally of President Yoon Suk Yeol's supporters in front of the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang, Gyeonggi Province, Jan. 16. Yonhap
YouTubers reinforce extreme political views
In this polarized environment, the role of YouTube has further amplified extreme political rhetoric. Without needing to attend protests, people can easily access the voices of supporters through videos posted on YouTube. Furthermore, YouTubers who convey these messages have positioned themselves as opinion leaders of the conservative bloc, causing their own arguments to spread more rapidly.
Political pundits remain divided on YouTube's role in shaping public opinion, although there is general agreement that it reinforces existing biases.
“As for the role of YouTubers, while they may contribute to ideological polarization, I believe they don't significantly influence the formation of public opinion among the general population. They reinforce ideological bias, but they don't play a major role in shaping broader public sentiment,” Shin said.
Eom acknowledges the influence of YouTubers, warning about their tendency to spread disinformation: "This is the issue with our politics. No matter who becomes president, political polarization will escalate to the point of resembling a civil war."
Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, also highlights how politicians are leveraging certain YouTubers to generate views that align with their own agendas.
"Some YouTubers are pushing their supporters toward extremism in order to increase financial gains, such as through super chat donations," Park said.
However, Shin emphasizes the importance of recognizing the presence of centrist and swing voters — those who are frustrated with both sides but remain silent until the election. Ignoring their perspectives when interpreting opinion polls could lead to a distortion of public sentiment, he said.