Subscribe
E-Paper
.jpg/dims/resize/120/optimize) |
Instead, it should take a strategy that is more long-term oriented and monumental. "North Korea" may be an opportunity for China to demonstrate its newly-shaping leadership and garner global respect as an alternative power to the United States.
Pompeo's latest visit to Pyongyang has been largely seen as less than deserving applause. Then, is this the time for China to jump in the game and prove its leadership on the North Korean issue?
The United States under the Donald Trump administration is backpedaling from its traditional leadership. The world is in need of leadership and is curious to know whether China can fill the vacuum. And North Korea is where China can show to the global audience how its leadership may be different from that of American, if any.
"China, be ambitious!" Thus spoke Zarathustra. After all, everyone understands that what is at stake is not just North Korea's denuclearization, but something bigger and more profound: competition for leadership and influence in the region.
So far, China has been seen warily watching the infatuation between Kim Jong-un and Trump. Amid deepening competition and rivalry between Washington and Beijing, China fears that the U.S. might successfully "seduce" North Korea and pull it away from the Chinese orbit to Team America, so as to form a new strategic collusion that is ultimately aimed at containing China. To the un-initiated mind, this view sounds odd. But this fear is clearly palpable in China. China was keen to find out whether there was any "secret agreement" between Trump and Kim in the June 12 summit in Singapore.
China is uncertain about how the future international order in East Asia will be shaped, based on the outcome of the North Korean denuclearization under the American initiative. So, it may want to "slow down" the negotiation process.
However, if the negotiations fail and denuclearization of North Korea is not achieved, the situation will not get better for the regional security China will have to face. It will likely fall back to the past vicious cycle in which the U.S. and North Korea confront each other. Even the U.S. military option on North Korea is likely to be tossed back on the table. In other words, China faces uncertainty if the North Korean denuclearization is achieved by an American initiative, but it faces similar or even worse uncertainty if the situation prolongs, deteriorates, and returns to last year's "fire and fury."
In addition, what China forgot to consider is that in the midst of intensifying US-China competition, countries around China are curious to know which, between the United States and China, the true leader is. They look for leadership that is direly absent.
In this circumstance, China's best strategy is not to stall the peace process, but actively promote it with a Chinese initiative and with a Chinese solution (zhongguo fang'an). China may want to take the ownership of North Korea's nuclear issue and solve it with the initiative, rather than sabotaging the American process.
If China solves the North Korean nuclear issue, neighboring countries' preferences to side with Beijing will increase naturally, including their support for China's other global outreach projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. China's desire to resume the six-party talks will gain attentive ears. Its desire to have THAAD withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula will be justly recognized, even by Washington.
In the North Korean nuclear issue, whether the U.S. or China will exercise its leadership will have a great influence on South Korea's calibration in judging Beijing's leadership ability. In addition, other countries in the Asia-Pacific region see how South Korea thinks of this as an "important reference" to how they will engage with China.
China cannot lead "alone." Leadership needs followers, friends and allies. In fact, that used to be the defining characteristic of the American leadership. The Trump administration is alienating its friends and allies. So, there is a leadership vacuum that China can naturally fill.
Lee Seong-hyon (sunnybbsfs@gmail.com), Ph.D., is a director at the Center for Chinese Studies; and a director at the Department of Unification Strategy at the Sejong Institute.
