| A new type of a tactical guided missile was launched from the North Korean town of Hamju, South Hamgyong Province, Thursday, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap |
Experts call for stronger actions to stop the situation from getting worse
By Kang Seung-woo
The international community expressed concerns over North Korea's test-firing of two short-range ballistic missiles last Wednesday, in defiance of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. But Pyongyang is likely to avoid fresh punishment, based on recent history, in which the international community has been generous about short-range weapons.
However, some experts believe that there should be a stricter response to the North Korean provocations, regardless of their size or range, in order to avoid giving the North the impression that short-range launches are tolerable.
According to the North's Korean Central News Agency, Friday, the totalitarian state test-fired two "new-type tactical guided missiles" that flew 600 kilometers off its east coast to hit their targets. South Korean and U.S. military authorities said they were ballistic missiles, which violate international resolutions that ban the country from using such technology.
The first North Korean ballistic missile test since March 2020 comes as the new U.S. presidential administration is putting the final touches on its North Korea policy review, which could be unveiled as early as next week.
In response to the show of force, the UNSC sanctions committee on North Korea is expected to meet Friday (local time), at the request of the United States, to discuss the regime's latest launches.
In addition, despite accusing the missile launches of violating the U.N. order, U.S. President Joe Biden told his first press conference, Thursday, that the United States will respond appropriately should North Korea continue to escalate tensions, while leaving the door open for diplomacy with the North.
However, history is on North Korea's side, as it has been conducting short-range ballistic missile tests since 2019, but has never faced punitive measures from the international community.
"The missile test will likely be discussed at the sanctions committee, but as they have never punished any country for the launches of short-range missiles, it is not likely that North Korea will face another set of sanctions," a South Korean foreign ministry official said.
However, claiming that North Korea's recent launches were part of its leader's ambitious plans to advance its ballistic missile programs, rather than a cry for attention or economic assistance, Markus Garlauskas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former U.S. National Intelligence Officer for North Korea, said the international community should take punitive action against North Korea.
"If these launches go unchecked by the international community, that is likely to lead to launches of bigger and more capable systems, including those capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads," Garlauskas said, adding that no response would "reinforce the precedent of such launches being accepted by the international community without any costs to Pyongyang at all."
"There are limits to the costs that the United States and its allies can exact. Efforts to reinvigorate sanctions-enforcement and law-enforcement actions against North Korean illicit activity in general are very unlikely to get Kim Jong-un to stop in his tracks. But imposing some costs after each test will at least influence Pyongyang's cost-benefit calculus for the next one."