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By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test or launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) immediately on mounting pressure from the United States and China, officials said Monday.
South Korean military officials said that it would be hard for Pyongyang to conduct any provocations at this time as it has been driven into a corner by Washington's warnings of military action, and Beijing's threat of reducing its oil supply to the North.
"Every situation going forward is unfavorable to North Korea," said a source, asking not to be named. "The question is whether the North is still able to conduct large-scale provocations in this environment."
While not actually conducting any major provocation, Pyongyang is ratcheting up its harsh rhetoric against U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, warning of war in response to any hostile action by the U.S.
Another source cited Seoul and Washington's ongoing Foal Eagle exercise as a reason behind this.
"U.S. troops and their weapons are currently here for the exercise. It would be difficult for Kim Jong-un to push ahead with provocations," the source said.
He noted that there is greater possibility for the North to take a wait-and-see attitude at least for this month, waiting for U.S. troops and weapons here for the exercise to leave after it is wrapped up.
The comments came amid concerns that the North may conduct provocative actions on and around today when it celebrates the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army.
Similar worries were raised ahead of April 15 when the totalitarian state marked the 105th anniversary of the birth of its founder Kim Il-sung. These escalated April 13 when U.S.-based North Korea monitoring website, 38 North, said a nuclear test at the North's Punggye-ri test site seemed "primed and ready," citing commercial satellite imagery. But no test has taken place.
The Kim Jong-un regime has launched several ballistic missiles, believed to be medium- or intermediate-range ones, but refrained from pushing for large-scale provocations since President Trump was inaugurated in January. The launches are categorized at a comparatively lower level than a nuclear test or an ICBM launch.
The Trump administration has continued to make hawkish remarks about the North, indicating that Washington could launch a pre-emptive strike on Pyongyang if it seemed certain that the Kim regime was about to conduct a sixth nuclear test.
As part of a show of force, it has sent a U.S. Navy strike group led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to waters off the peninsula.
Beijing, especially after the U.S.-China summit on April 6 and 7, has appeared to join Washington's efforts to raise pressure on the North to curb its nuclear and missile threats.
The Global Times, controlled by China's Communist Party, said in an editorial Saturday that if Washington launches a military attack on the North's nuclear facilities as a result of Pyongyang's unwavering pursuit of its nuclear program, "Beijing should oppose the move by diplomatic channels, rather than get involved through military action."
The message was construed as China having taken a major step forward in its position as the country signaled no military intervention in the case of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on the North, though the newspaper suggested a "Maginot Line," saying that "China will ramp up its military immediately" if U.S. and South Korean armed forces cross the inter-Korean border "in a ground invasion for the direct purpose of annihilating the Pyongyang regime."
The newspaper also warned that if the North pushes for the nuclear test, it will dramatically decrease the amount of petroleum exported to North Korea.
Oil supplies are regarded as a "lifeline" for Pyongyang. Cutting them off would mean that sanctions against the Kim regime would increase to their maximum level.
Amid pressure from Beijing, the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Friday that Pyongyang-Beijing relations would be strained if China strengthens economic sanctions against Pyongyang.
