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| A protester holds up a card during a rally to oppose a plan to deploy the U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system near the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, Saturday. / AP-Yonhap |
Seoul likely to come under pressure to pay more for defense costs
By Yi Whan-woo
U.S. President Donald Trump's recent remark on billing South Korea for the deployment of a U.S. missile shield signals that Seoul will come under greater pressure to share more of the cost of stationing American forces here, analysts said Sunday.
With just nine days before the May 9 presidential election, the White House call to charge South Korea is stirring up concerns over a possible clash between the incoming government and the Trump administration.
True, the unpredictable Trump may want something else and may be intimidating South Korea over the cost of the ongoing installation of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery to reach his goal.
But whatever his motives are, the next government will face a tricky job of resolving Trump's complaints about Seoul, according to the analysts.
They said Seoul will also need to ensure that the U.S. commitment to deterring North Korea's military threats will remain unchanged.
In an apparent bid to appease these worries, Cheong Wa Dae said Trump's national security adviser H. R. McMaster reaffirmed the Seoul-Washington agreement reached over THAAD in a phone conversation with National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin, Sunday.
Under the deal, South Korea is responsible for providing the land and necessary infrastructure, such as electricity, for the THAAD installation. The U.S. will bear the costs for its deployment and operation.
The telephone dialogue came after Trump told Reuters and the Washington Times in separate interviews, Friday, that "it would be appropriate" if South Korea paid for the THAAD system, which he priced at $1 billion.
Calling the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) "horrible" and "bad," Trump also said he will either renegotiate or terminate the deal that took effect in 2012.
Citing the U.S. trade deficit with South Korea, Trump has repeatedly been complaining about the KORUS FTA along with Seoul's "free-ride" on defense from Washington.
Taming South Korea?
The analysts said that negotiations on how much Korea will have to pay for stationing U.S. forces here will be tough.
"The conflict between our next government and the U.S. is easily foreseeable," said Hwang Tae-soon, a political analyst.
He referred to the presidential candidates, both conservatives and liberals who rebuffed Trump's remark and claimed the U.S. should exclusively bear the costs for THAAD.
Among them, presidential frontrunner Moon Jae-in's camp called Trump's suggestion an "impossible option."
"I believe Trump intentionally spoke of the THAAD installation cost to tame the next South Korean president in possible negotiations over the KORUS FTA, defense-cost sharing and other issues that he is not satisfied with," Hwang said. "With the chances high for liberals to win the presidential race, Seoul, however, may not fully cooperate with the U.S.'s strategy in the region."
Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, echoed the view, although he said the security alliance between the two allies will not be hurt.
"Even the liberal governments of the past, such as those under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun complied with Washington eventually in terms of diplomacy, security affairs and trade policies," Shin said. "There may be a conflict, but not serious enough to upend the Seoul-Washington alliance."
According to Cheong Wa Dae, McMaster explained that Trump's suggestion over the THAAD installation cost was "in line with the general context of the U.S. citizens' expectation for the U.S. and its allies' defense-cost sharing."
"Trump was also quoted as saying that the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the most rock-solid alliance, it remains as Washington's top priority in the Asia-Pacific and that the U.S. will be with South Korea 100 percent," the presidential office said.
Meanwhile, Trump said both him and Chinese President Xi Jinping will not be happy if North Korea conducts another nuclear test.
"I will not be happy. And I can tell you also, I don't believe that the President of China, who is a very respected man, will be happy either," Trump told CBS, Saturday.
