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By Kim Jae-kyoung
U.S. President Donald Trump should stop his improvised, inflammatory rhetoric about North Korea to avoid a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula, according to the Washington-based Arms Control Association (ACA).
It said Trump's reckless words have escalated tension on the peninsula, raising the possibility Pyongyang will conduct more aggressive and dangerous military provocations.
"Recent bombastic rhetoric from Trump is a dangerous and ineffective strategy to halt North Korea's nuclear development and could trigger a military conflict that would not be in the U.S's interest," ACA's Nonproliferation Policy Director Kelsey Davenport and researcher Alicia Sanders-Zakre said in an email interview.
The concern comes as Trump has intensified his verbal threats to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un by warning that the North will be met with "fire and fury like the world has never seen" if it continues to threaten the U.S.
His ominous warning has prompted the reclusive country to fire back by threatening to strike Guam, a U.S. territory within range of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Its state media said Thursday that it will finalize its plan to strike Guam by mid-August.
According to the ACA, a U.S. non-partisan think tank, there are two big problems associated with Trump's North Korea policy.
First, his bellicose rhetoric that contrasts with his aides and the U.S. Congress could send a mixed message and lead to Pyongyang making a miscalculation which could lead to a military confrontation.
"The U.S. must signal a cohesive position to North Korea, for example, by sending a high-level envoy to North Korea to indicate a willingness to begin talks," Davenport and Sanders-Zakre said.
"The current lack of clarity about the U.S. position due to several incongruous statements could lead to a North Korean miscalculation and accidental escalation. Careless statements from the U.S. about a pre-emptive war are dangerous and must stop."
Secondly, Trump's policy is being focused too much on sanctions and pressure lacking any efforts to resolve the North Korean issue through diplomacy.
"Trump's policy toward North Korea thus far has been to threaten and to impose additional sanctions, but not to engage in any meaningful dialogue necessary to curb North Korean nuclear development. However, sanctions alone are not enough," they said.
They believe that its recent successful test of ICBMs demonstrates that tightening sanctions without seeking engagement has not been an effective measure to curb the isolated country's nuclear and missile development.
Citing Secretary of State Tillerson's comments that left the door open for dialogue, they called for Trump to seek diplomacy with North Korea to peacefully resolve rising tension.
"Without a diplomatic solution, North Korea will continue to test and improve its systems. It is important for the U.S. to prioritize diplomacy to prevent North Korea from perfecting its intercontinental ballistic missiles."
The association also suggested that the U.S. work with South Korea to develop an interim agreement with the North, which does not require preconditions to begin negotiations.
"An example would be the freeze-for-freeze proposal suggested by China and Russia, whereby North Korea would freeze ballistic missile testing in exchange for a freeze of some U.S.-South Korean military exercises," they said.
"An interim agreement could pause the rapid pace of North Korea's nuclear and missile testing, ease tension and build the foundation for a future comprehensive agreement."
In particular, the association stressed that the continued and rapid advancement of North Korea's nuclear and missile programs underscore the need for the U.S. to begin a dialogue.
Davenport and Sanders-Zakre pointed out that while the North does not yet have a capability to bomb the U.S. tomorrow, the reported development of a miniaturized nuclear warhead capable of being delivered by an ICBM represents significant progress.
"The U.S cannot wait for North Korea to achieve this capability to begin working toward a diplomatic resolution," they said.
According to the U.S. research group, estimates of the North's nuclear arsenal range from 10 to 60 warheads although there is a high degree of uncertainty around its nuclear program due to its lack of transparency. "What is certain is that North Korea's stockpile of fissile material available for weapons is growing and will continue to grow without serious diplomatic engagement."
