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By Kim Rahn
President Moon Jae-in is visiting the United States for talks with President Donald Trump before the Washington-Pyongyang summit slated for June 12.
The summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will be the first meeting between leaders of the two countries, which have been adversaries to each other, and will be the critical one to decide whether the reclusive regime will give up its nuclear weapons and turn from a "rogue nation" to a "normal country."
Moon, for whom permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula is most important, has continuously tried to broker the denuclearization talks between Washington and Pyongyang.
The result of his efforts began to appear at the start of this year ― the North participated in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, the two Koreas resumed talks and held the inter-Korean summit, Moon and Kim agreed to seek complete denuclearization of the peninsula and officially ending the 1950-53 Korean War, and Pyongyang and Washington agreed to finally hold the meeting between their leaders.
Moon hoped the inter-Korean summit would succeed and become a good guide for the following Kim-Trump summit. And many experts say he has completed the mission successfully, as he had Kim's commitment to denuclearization stipulated on the Panmunjeom Declaration and Washington and Pyongyang set the date and location of their summit.
The South Korean leader is now tasked with fine-tuning the detailed process of denuclearization, a timetable for it, and the allies' concessions in return for the nuclear disarmament, together with Trump before the latter's meeting with Kim. His role as a mediator has become more important, especially after North Korea last week threatened to reconsider the Kim-Trump summit if the U.S. forces it to unilaterally give up its nuclear arsenal.
Moon, the mediator
Moon is now widely recognized as a top "negotiator" as he led the reclusive regime to dialogue and the inter-Korean summit, mediated between Kim and Trump over their different stances about denuclearization, and helped arrange the Washington-Pyongyang summit.
"President Trump and Kim Jong-un are scheduled to meet to discuss denuclearization, and Secretary (of State) Mike Pompeo has expressed confidence that the two leaders share a common understanding about the desired outcome of the summit," Frank Aum, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said.
"So I don't think President Moon could have done a better job in mediating between the two sides. The inter-Korean summit did the best it could to set up the U.S.-DPRK summit, but at this point, it is up to the United States and North Korea to take the next step."
The DPRK refers to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.
Professor Lee Geun at Seoul National University's Graduate School of International Studies also evaluated that Moon's role was to have Kim and Trump meet and he played his role perfectly.
While Moon has stressed South Korea should be in the driver's seat in the denuclearization talks, the rhetoric to dismiss concerns over Seoul being sidelined, Lee said, "Moon is not in the driver's seat; he 'prepared' the car so the North and the U.S. can drive it."
Regarding North Korea's recent threat to reconsider the Washington-Pyongyang summit if the U.S. forces it to unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons, Cho Sung-ryul, senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, "The statement was targeting the U.S., but it was also a demand for Moon, before his summit with Trump, to play a role because he has been persuading Trump as a broker."
Ken E. Gause, director of the International Affairs Group at CNA, also said, "In recent days, as North Korea has pulled back a bit from the path set at Panmunjeom, Moon has kept an open channel with Washington to help chart a way forward."
Hefty tasks to discuss
Although Moon and Trump have discussed the issue over the phone many times, they will talk about it in more detail, face to face.
There are many things to discuss and agree on, such as how fast the denuclearization process should be made, how to verify the process, and what concessions the allies can make in return for Pyongyang removing its nuclear arsenal.
"I believe that Moon and Trump are already in agreement about the goal of permanent, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization. They'll also need to come to an agreement about what additional steps North Korea needs to take, what concessions Washington and Seoul can provide, the timeline for all these steps, a roadmap for additional meetings that bring in additional partners (e.g., a trilateral or quadrilateral meeting with China), and a vision for a final peace regime," Aum said.
He noted that although he expects the Kim-Trump summit to be successful, "Washington and Seoul need to discuss what to do if talks fail."
Lee said the key agenda items to be discussed would be the timetable of the denuclearization and compensation the U.S. can offer to North Korea.
"Washington will want an as-fast-as-possible process of dismantlement, a special inspection for the North's nuclear facilities, and probably broadcasting of moving the weapons to the U.S. But North Korea will want phased denuclearization," Lee said.
"So agreements (among the involved countries) should be reached on the timetable of the implementation, as well as rewards from the U.S. to the North in return (for removing the weapons)," he said.
Gause said it is important to show North Korea what incentives it can get through the denuclearization, at the earliest possible point in the process. "He (Kim) needs to see that the sacrifice he is willing to make is worth it," the director said.
"We have begun to see some discussion of guaranteeing the Kim family regime and vague guarantees of economic aid. But if that aid is not institutionalized (such as a Marshall Plan) and is dependent on various pieces coming together, it might not work. The incentives and guarantees need to be very clear to Pyongyang. For this to work, presidents Moon and Trump need to be on the same page and in common agreement with regard not just of denuclearization, but the aid and security package they are willing to give in order to make denuclearization possible," Gause said.
For concessions from the military, Lee said the chance of scaling down the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the peninsula in joint military drills would be high, while that of withdrawing or reducing American troops in the South would be low. Pyongyang used to demand the U.S. withdraw the troops and stop deploying strategic assets in a way to guarantee the security of its regime and remove military threats.
"If hostile relations (between Pyongyang and Washington) are resolved, with the two nations signing a peace treaty and making trade agreements, whether or not the U.S. troops are stationed here will not be an issue," Lee said.
Aum said the troop withdrawal is not on the table for the current talks but can be later.
"I think at least a partial troop reduction could potentially be on the table later down the road if North Korea takes significant steps toward denuclearization and the North Korean threat appears to have been reduced," he said.
The senior expert said reducing the frequency of deployment of strategic assets can be an immediate concession. "According to South Korea, this is precisely what North Korea has asked for and it is very doable," he said.
"Other immediate concessions that the United States can make are security guarantees, a commitment to work on a peace regime in parallel with denuclearization steps, and humanitarian assistance. I think Washington will maintain the sanctions and pressure until more tangible progress is made."
Regarding doubts about whether North Korea will really abandon all of its nuclear weapons, analysts showed mixed opinions.
Lee saw positively, saying the North would carry out full denuclearization this time because this is the last chance for it to become a normal country.
"(In the process of denuclearization) there can be some mistakes by working-level officials or misunderstandings between Pyongyang and Washington. But in such cases, the leaders can sort it out," he said. "If North Korea deliberately hides fissile materials, it will have a zero chance to be recognized as a normal country by the international community."
But Park Ji-young, senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said it is impossible to verify whether North Korea will really open everything about its nuclear programs and pursue denuclearization transparently.
"International experts will learn about the level of North Korea's nuclear technology if the country makes public its state-of-the-art weapons entirely. But if it decides to hide, they can never know," she said.
