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| gettyimagesbank |
Experts have called for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to embrace "privatization" to address his country's economic challenges rather than just to wait until international sanctions are lifted.
They said the reclusive regime will come under mounting pressure to opt for privatization following gradual yet notable changes in its economy toward marketization.
These comments came after a recent report by South's Korea Development Institute which said the North's economy is increasingly ruled by "dollarization," an inevitable result of a weak economy whereby the North Korean won fails to function as a currency.
The experts see dollarization ― moving toward an economy largely ruled by U.S. currency ― as a sign of the Kim regime pursuing more complete and full integration into the global economy.
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| Bill Brown |
"They can suck in won and dollars for the regime by selling or leasing state property and licenses, in effect privatizing some of its assets," the Washington-based North Korea expert said.
As it privatizes, he added, productivity of the newly private assets will soar, helping the economy even if state enterprises falter.
In Brown's view, while Kim is fully aware of the possible changes, he will remain reluctant to sell state assets since this dilutes his control over the people, which also poses a security threat.
"So which is more important to him? Security against uncontrolled economic activity that can disrupt his rule or security given by nuclear weapons? I hope he will soon realize by far the bigger threat is domestic unrest by people with money," he said.
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| Sean King |
"Kim's decision to move toward a more market-oriented economy has helped significantly during this difficult period, and privatization is a likely and recommended possibility, especially in a market-driven economy. China and Vietnam are excellent models. The regime can very well consider privatization as one of its options," he said.
He thinks Kim has to broaden his perspective on keeping the economy running, given sanctions are restricting the country's exports, and adequate imports of crude oil and petroleum products needed for consumers and industrial production.
However, some experts expect Kim will resist the growing pressure for privatization.
Sean King, a senior vice president of Park Strategies and an East Asia specialist, said Kim will not dare risk letting his people have power ― through knowledge.
In his view, North Korea can't afford true economic development which will inevitably entail letting North Koreans be in touch with the outside world, as they would then know they have been living a lie.
"They would soon realize what a pariah basket case their state is. How un-respected it is," King said.
"I think Trump's offers of riches fall on Kim's deaf ears because Kim knows his days would be numbered if his people ever got rich and actually knew what was going on."
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| Tara O |
"Not having the Honest Wise probably impacted its ability to illegally sell coal or other items, a reason that could make Kim seek harder other more diversified ways to survive," she said.
According to a recent report by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, North Korea's trade plunged 48.8 percent to $2.84 billion in 2018 from the previous year as a result of international sanctions.
