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| Bong Young-shik |
The Kim Jong-un regime is also likely to expect the Trump administration to be more forward-looking toward the North. The main reason for believing so is the political variable surrounding Trump. More specifically, the possibility of the recent U.S. economic slowdown, the trend of Trump's declining supports, and the Democratic Party's push for the impeachment.
The worsening political crisis has left Trump in a situation where he has to get out of various scandals and impeachment politics by using all the cards he has to try to be re-elected. In this sense, Trump is drawing a blueprint to turn the Democratic Party-led attention on impeachment toward the North Korean nuclear issue, which is a major security threat to the United States, as well as taking advantage of it for the election.
The second reason is the possibility of retaliation by North Korea when the U.S. conducts military activity. The North Korean regime has repeatedly threatened to launch a deadly and full-scale military retaliation against South Korea and Japan if the U.S. takes military action against it. If there is a large-scale military conflict within the Korean Peninsula, South Korea will suffer a great deal of damage. As a result, the Korean government and people's trust in the U.S. will be irretrievably damaged, which makes the U.S. believe it has no choice but to negotiate with North Korea in the end.
This article illustrates the perspective on how we are misreading U.S. policy on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea's leverage on Trump.
First of all, the North Korean nuclear issue is not critical for President Trump to get out of the presidential impeachment or to seek re-election. Diplomatic and security issues have never been the determinant factor in deciding the U.S. presidential election, according to my experience in the U.S. for more than a decade. President Richard Nixon had a tremendous diplomatic achievement in U.S.-China relations, but it was not enough to cover up the Watergate scandal, and President Bush Senior, despite his 1991 Gulf War victory, was defeated by Democratic candidate Bill Clinton.
The idea that Trump will solely concentrate on resolving the North Korean nuclear issue for his re-election is quite an excessive view that is too centralized on the Korean Peninsula and on North Korea. The U.S. diplomatic and security issues include not only North Korea, but also various areas ranging from China, Iran and Venezuela to ISIS.
Furthermore, the possibility of Trump being impeached is still not high enough, considering how it works. Therefore, even if Trump desires to escape from the impeachment by making a big deal with North Korea, it would not be enough to rush to a third summit. Rather, he must be aware that a hasty agreement with North Korea, or a so-called bad deal, would be a serious blow to Trump's political standing in the U.S.
It is also an excessively optimistic view that the U.S. will not take military action against North Korea. Obama and Trump have fundamentally different views on alliances. Obama decided not to take military action against North Korea after receiving internal reports that 80 percent of North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities could be disabled by the U.S., but that there is still a possibility of North Korea's military retaliation.
Trump would be the opposite. For Trump, alliance with South Korea and Japan is no more than a business level. He once showed his thoughts by mentioning that even if a war breaks out with North Korea, it will take place far away (from the U.S.). For Trump, an 80 percent chance of success might be a very satisfactory one. If the U.S. shows no change in its attitude even after the 2019 deadline, and North Korea crosses the red line, Trump is likely immediately to drop his conciliatory attitude over the past two years and return to the one who has been talking about "fire and fury" and "total destruction of North Korea."
The higher the military tension in the Korean Peninsula, the better it will be to get the maximum cost for the U.S. military presence from South Korea and Japan. Even if a war breaks out in the Korean Peninsula, it will never backfire on Trump's re-election. In a national security crisis, public support for the incumbent president usually skyrockets.
According to North Korean elites, the North is also highly wary of U.S. military action. However, unless the North Korean regime makes any further moves toward denuclearization, the U.S. is highly unlikely to be first to come up with a "new creative alternative."
Dr. Bong Young-shik teaches at the GSIS of Sogang University and the Underwood International College of Yonsei University. He is Senior Research Fellow at Institution for Global Strategy and Cooperation.
