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By Lakhvinder Singh
 |
According to media reports the latest meeting focused on promoting cooperation in important areas such as infrastructure, humanitarian assistance, counterterrorism, maritime security, cybersecurity, disaster relief, education and human resource development. It is argued that a focus on such practical areas can hasten the realization of the vision of a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" despite some core political differences among member countries. It is hoped focusing on non-controversial issues ― such as North Korea and the East and South China Seas ― on which all member countries share similar views will be a good starting point to take cooperation to the next level. Cooperation on economic issues ― such as strengthening supply chain resilience ― and to coordinate efforts to support countries vulnerable to malignant and coercive economic actions by the emerging hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region have also started appearing on the agenda of Quad lately. The founding members are also planning to come up with practical ways to cooperate to counter disinformation campaigns by China.
It is also hoped by the founding members that more countries in the region can also be attracted to join the initiative with a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" principle serving as the core meeting ground to realize the bigger vision of peace and prosperity. The idea is to integrate the initiative of Quad with a broader regional vision of peace and prosperity for everyone in the post-COVID-19 world.
To build the case for Quad being part of a broader regional vision, member countries are using the initiatives announced at the Japan-ASEAN Summit in November. Member countries are also emphasizing ASEAN's unity and centrality as well as the ASEAN-led regional architecture in any future region-wide security architecture for the entire Asia-Pacific region. Quad member countries are also throwing their full support behind the "ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific," issued on June 23, 2019. The idea working behind this strategy is to convert Quad into an initiative of ASEAN countries. Behind the scenes, many serious efforts are being made to iron out all the differences between the founding member countries and ASEAN nations in order to achieve this objective.
Through these regular meetings, member countries are trying to create an impression that everything is going well within the Quad grouping but this may not be the case in reality. While on the one hand there are serious differences between India and Japan on the future role of Quad in the region, there are serious differences of member countries with the U.S. on the future direction of ties with China. While the U.S. wants to formalize this block to maintain its superiority in the region, other countries are not ready to go that far due to various geopolitical and economic reasons. Thus, lack of consensus on the broader vision of the Quad going forward is emerging as a serious internal issue for the group.
Thus, despite the ambitious plans of Quad officials, the future of Quad may not be as bright as it is presented in the group meetings. It faces serous hurdles going forward. The change of leadership in the U.S. has put serious question marks on the future of Quad. The Joseph Biden team may not be as enthusiastic about Quad as was the Donald Trump team. There are serious differences between how the two administrations view China.
While the U.S. is the leading force behind the idea of Quad, it has for some time been struggling to maintain its regional dominance due to economic constraints. It is no longer the biggest trading partner of most of the countries in the region as it was only a decade ago. And its attempt to pass on the economic burden to maintain its widespread military dominance is being met with resistance by host countries. Thus the U.S. ability to lead a security initiative of such broad scope is declining.
Also, China is sparing no effort to counter Quad's expansion. It is taking counter measures both at the bilateral and multilateral levels to counter the American push. Recently it has succeeded in bringing all major regional economies including two Quad member countries into its regional economic web through RCEP. With both Australia and Japan agreeing to join the China-led free trade network, the Quad security initiative has already been dented to some extent.
Also, despite the best efforts by Quad members, ASEAN has refused to throw its full weight behind it. Some ASEAN members are very strongly against the idea of the group taking any sides in the ongoing power struggle. Without ASEAN's full support chances of Quad becoming the leading security architecture in the region are very low. Even a country like Korea which is otherwise very closely integrated with U.S.-led security architecture is resisting the idea of joining any anti-China bloc due to its heavy engagement with China economically.
Thus, even though most countries in the region have expressed their concerns over China's military expansion, given the geopolitical reality of today they are not able to make clear choices. Currently India which is firmly standing behind the idea of Quad may find itself in a very difficult and tricky situation in the coming months. It is time for India's security officials to review the premise of Quad-based security before it is too late. It may serve them well.
The writer is a Seoul-based geostrategist. The views expressed in the article are the author's own and do not reflect the editorial direction of The Korea Times.
