Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, gestures as he and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, right, leave the opening ceremony of the memorial complex "To the peaceful citizens of the Soviet Union who died during the Great Patriotic War," near Zaitsevo village in the Leningrad, Russia, Saturday. AP-Yonhap

Foreign policy observers are expressing confusion and concern while closely monitoring the risky military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. This collaboration has raised alarms not only in South Korea but also in the United States.

Understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions, among other factors, is particularly challenging, if not impossible. Moscow's weapons deal with Pyongyang is perceived as disproportionately benefiting North Korea, providing the reclusive state with numerous additional advantages beyond the revenues generated from arms exports.

The recent test-firing by North Korea of a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead on Jan. 14 triggered speculation that Russia may have played a role in assisting the North in enhancing its hypersonic missile technology.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said the IRBM flew 1,000 kilometers, without providing other details about the missile's capabilities.

According to a South Korean media report, the missile reached a maximum speed of Mach 14 and an altitude of 100 kilometers. That suggests that North Korea has made significant progress in its hypersonic missile technology since the initial launch of its hypersonic missile in September 2021.

However, U.S. experts offer a somewhat different assessment of North Korea's missile capabilities.

Robert Peters, a research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Washington D.C.-based think tank Heritage Foundation, said North Korea's recently tested IRBM is hypersonic, but may not be as advanced as North Korea had previously claimed.

"There are indications that it was just Mach 5, so it is technically hypersonic but it's not hypersonic at the range of like Mach 10 which is some of the systems that we're seeking to develop as well as what China and Russia are seeking to develop," he said in a Voice of America talk show streamed on YouTube on Saturday.

Peters noted the significance of North Korea's hypersonic missile test occurring as it increases military cooperation with Russia.

"I think this may be another indicator that the Russians may be helping them with some technology transfer," he said.

He added that what North Korea might expect in return for supplying artillery shells and munitions to Russia might not involve hardware, such as fighter jets or submarines, as some speculated.

"What I think is far more likely is that (Putin) will provide the North Koreans with technical capabilities… so as to help North Koreans particularly in their missile program," he said.

A lingering question remains unanswered: What additional benefits would Putin have gained, beyond addressing shortages of artillery shells, from the deepening military ties with North Korea?

Experts suggest that Russia-North Korea military cooperation constitutes a mutually beneficial deal for both countries, with significant gains that Putin could derive from the arrangement.

Chris Monday, a professor of Dongseo University in Busan / Courtesy of Chris Monday

Chris Monday, a professor at Dongseo University based in Busan, said North Korea is a useful card for Putin and he will exploit it as a tool to deflect attention from themselves.

"For now, Putin needs North Korea for his war with Ukraine," he told The Korea Times. "North Korea has the dumb weapons that cannot be electronically jammed, the bullets that the Russian convict brigades use to flush out Ukrainian positions for sophisticated drone strikes, and the cheap missiles used to overwhelm Western defense systems."

He noted that for Putin, North Korean aid is a blunt way to show that the West can no longer mount an overwhelming Desert Storm-style offensive.

The professor indicated that Russia needs outdated conventional weapons from North Korea to evade detection and possible disruption by the West's modern military equipment.

He added that through military cooperation with North Korea, Putin is also attempting to use South Korea as an example to other countries.

"South Korea, in his view, has become overly assertive," he said. "Putin will try to use North Korea to deliver selective punishment on South Korea to be a lesson to other countries. He knows he can't invade the European Union. This is fantasy. So South Korea presents a handy target for Putin."

The Russian leader used a similar tactic in domestic politics.

Knowing that he cannot remove all of his critics and rivals, he has been selective and made an example out of someone. Monday said Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader, lawyer and anti-corruption activist, became a victim by reportedly being sent to a remote prison colony, as Putin tried to use the case to warn other critics.

Putin is allegedly upset at South Korea because it is one of the countries having sided with the U.S.-led West against Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Russia's foreign ministry reacted furiously to South Korea's announcement on Dec. 27 where it added over 600 types of goods that could potentially be used for military purposes to its export control list for Russia. Those goods include heavy construction equipment and rechargeable batteries.

"This is an unfriendly move taken at Washington's behest," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Marina Zakharova said during a news briefing on Dec. 27. "It will damage South Korea's own economy and industry."

In an interview with Russia's state media, Russian Ambassador to Korea Georgy Zinoviev warned of potential consequences in the event that South Korea provides lethal weapons to Ukraine to assist in the ongoing conflict against Russia. He characterized South Korea's direct weapons shipment to Ukraine as a red line. South Korean law prohibits exports of weapons to war zones.

Russia-North Korea relations showed signs of evolving into a greater international security threat as Putin vowed to make a reciprocal visit to Pyongyang, following Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia in September.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia and North Korea were discussing Putin's visit to the North through diplomatic channels and the results would be announced once a decision was made.

Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's former ambassador to Russia (2011-2015), speaks during a forum hosted by Hankook Ilbo in November, 2022. Korea Times file

Wi Sung-lac, former South Korean ambassador to Russia (2011-2015), said if Putin visits North Korea as he promised, their bilateral relations would deepen further.

"It will be Putin's second visit to North Korea. His first visit to the North came in 2000," Wi said. "Putin is the first and only Russian leader who paid a visit to North Korea. No Soviet head of state had ever visited the North during the Soviet years."

Wi said Putin's potential visit to North Korea would carry more political implications than diplomatic consequences for the two countries. He added that the Russian leader might be using North Korea as a means to convey tailored messages to the West, as well as South Korea.

"His message for the West will be that he is against the U.S.-led campaign to reset the international order and that it won't happen because there are other countries, such as Russia, China and North Korea that are against it, and if necessary, they can team up to prevent it from happening," he said.

According to Wi, Russia also wants the South to stop moving closer the U.S. and is signaling that South Korea could face consequences if it does not take heed of Russia's position.

Russia is not comparable to the U.S. in terms of its economic power, but its military and science technology are as strong as those of the U.S. and therefore Russia will try to fully use its influence to negatively affect the international security environment.

He said there is a role Russia can play as an obstructor.

Wi indicated that Russia, constrained by its limited power, may not be able to shape the world order entirely in its favor. However, with its military technology and capabilities, Moscow has the potential to disrupt it whenever it chooses, especially if Russia collaborates with a country like North Korea.