North Korean leader Kim Jong-un / Korea Times file

There's a saying that goes, "A barking dog never bites."

Some North Korea analysts argue that this proverb better elucidates North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's motives behind his recent increase in hostile remarks against South Korea, including threats of nuclear destruction.

Just as dogs may bite out of fear, some argue that Kim's increasingly provocative rhetoric reflects his own anxieties rather than signaling a genuine willingness to go to war with South Korea, as some U.S. analysts have claimed in a recent article.

The group of people who believe fear-driven barking is more convincing than the war scenario highlights North Korea's internal factors as a source of Kim's belligerent behavior. They argue that such behavior serves to deflect attention from domestic issues and challenges. Inside this school of thought, views are divided. Some argue that economic frustration is a key driver of North Korea's escalating saber-rattling.

Others argue that the primary driver behind North Korea's increasing saber-rattling is not just a food shortage but a more fundamental concern. According to this perspective, Kim Jong-un is deeply troubled by South Korea's cultural influence, which has become widespread, especially among teenagers and millennials in their 20s and 30s. This group, often referred to as the "Jangmadang Generation," grew up experiencing elements of capitalism through their parents' involvement in markets to make ends meet. They believe that if not adequately controlled, this cultural influence could pose a serious threat to the regime.

"If the North prepares for war, there should be signs, and the South would be able to detect some of those signs, either through signal or human intelligence," Retired Navy Capt. Park Bum-jin told The Korea Times. "But currently, there have been no such signs."

Park, also an adjunct professor at Kyung Hee University's Graduate School of Business, said fear-driven barking explains Kim's highly provocative statements.

"Kim became outrageous because South Korea's pop culture has been gaining traction among the North Korean youth," he said, adding that video footage recently released by a Seoul-based non-profit group called South and North Korea Democracy (SAND) illustrates the hysteria of the North Korean regime.

The footage depicts North Korean authorities publicly sentencing two North Korean teenagers to 12 years of hard labor for watching South Korean TV dramas and movies. The 16-year-olds are shown handcuffed and dressed in prison uniforms during the public trial.

North Korea has been vigilant against what it perceives as South Korea's cultural invasion. In an effort to curb its influence on residents, North Korea has implemented a series of measures prohibiting North Koreans from watching or distributing South Korean dramas, movies, and pop music. Since 2020, North Korea has imposed fines or imprisonment on individuals caught owning or distributing foreign cultural products or speaking in a manner resembling South Koreans.

Park said Kim's paranoia reached a peak as South Korean pop culture greatly impacted the younger generation.

"Kim appears to feel a sense of crisis because the influence of South Korean pop culture in the North could make him lose control over the residents," he said. "Whenever he feels pressure, he ratcheted up provocations like the ones we've seen recently."

Park noted that the North Korean leader is attempting to convey the message that the North is capable of defending itself, citing its possession of nuclear weapons and missiles.

Defense Minister Shin Won-sik echoed a similar sentiment regarding the North Korean leader's recent provocative statements. He suggested that Kim's primary audience is North Korean residents, particularly due to the North's internal challenges. Shin argued that Kim aims to consolidate support from residents by instilling fear and creating a sense of urgency about the possibility of war, thereby urging them to be prepared.

During his speech at the 9th Enlarged Plenum of the 8th Workers Party of Korea Central Committee meeting held from Dec. 26-30, Kim declared an end to "eight decades" of inter-Korean relations, labeling South Korea as the North's primary enemy. Subsequently, he acted on his words.

In January, the North removed the arc of reunification, Monument to the Three-Point Charter for National Reunification in Pyongyang, which had symbolized reunification since its establishment in 2001. This action came shortly after Kim referred to it as an "eyesore" during a speech to the Supreme People's Assembly on Jan. 15. Additionally, North Korea announced the complete destruction of the North Korean segment of the inter-Korean railway, which connected Seoul to Sinuiju via Pyongyang, rendering it inoperable for future service.

Through this course of action, Kim abruptly disregarded the legacies of his father and grandfather. This indicates a sense of urgency on his part to push for fundamental changes.

There has been significant interest in understanding what prompted the North Korean leader to become so agitated about inter-Korean relations, to the extent of rejecting the Kim dynasty's decades-old legacy of pursuing a unified Korea. It is worth noting that North Korea's vision of unification, with two distinct systems coexisting within a single country, differs significantly from South Korea's pursuit of a free and democratic Korea.

Soo Kim, a former analyst of the Central Intelligence Agency, speaks during a Korea Times forum held in October, 2022, in Seoul. Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

Analysts rushed to interpret the intention behind his provocative behavior.

Some analysts interpreted Kim's increasingly provocative remarks and North Korea's subsequent actions as indicative of an impending war. They emphasize external factors such as the protracted war in Ukraine and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, suggesting that these circumstances could lead to North Korea's miscalculation, especially as the U.S. may struggle to simultaneously sustain multiple war fronts. Others suggest that Kim's confidence and outspokenness may have been bolstered after North Korea signed a military pact to send artillery and munitions to Russia, leading Kim to believe that Russia is providing backing and support.

However, some analysts interpret the situation differently, asserting that there have been no indications of war thus far.

Soo Kim, a former analyst for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), cautioned against making definitive statements about whether Kim is or is not preparing for war. She warned that either assertion creates a simplistic view of the North Korean leader's intentions.

"What we do know is that North Korea has stepped up its provocative behavior — the increased frequency and variations of weapons testing, hostile statements toward the U.S. and South Korea, and the recent decision to make it clear that Seoul was Pyongyang's Number 1 enemy," she said. "Kim's most recent decision to remove unification as the goal gives him greater justification and wriggle room to intensify his belligerent activities that could help him better prepare for pitched tensions with the South."

Park Jae-wan, a retired major and adjunct professor at Kookmin University Graduate School of Politics and Leadership, suggested that Kim's greatest fear at present could be the instability of his regime due to the repercussions of cultural invasion.

"North Korea is a country where collective action or any form of protest against the regime is nearly impossible because its system was built like that," he said. "Thus, what can happen in case younger North Koreans are exposed to South Korean culture will be that they can refuse to accept the system and choose to defect to a free country like South Korea. This is the fear Kim is dealing with."

He said he agrees that fear-driven barking could be an accurate description of Kim's provocative remarks. Park said the North Korean leader's remarks about war do not align with the other actions he has taken since December.

"There are discrepancies between his words and deeds," he said.

If he is seriously considering war as an option, Park said, Kim is not supposed to export artillery shells, rockets and munitions to Russia.

"If a country is preparing for war, it's supposed to gather weapons, not sell them," he said.

Park added that it is possible the North Korean leader may have been quoted out of context in his speeches during the two recent events, first in December and then in early January.

"In those speeches, Kim himself made it clear that he had no intention of waging war against the South, but he also said that he would not back down in the event of the outbreak of a war and that he would destroy South Korea with nuclear bombs."

Park pointed to North Korea's recently announced development plan to build 200 manufacturing factories in provincial cities and counties as another indicator showing that Kim has no plans to wage war against the South.

Kim announced that North Korea would construct 20 factories in cities outside of Pyongyang every year for 10 years, and those factories will produce necessary goods for the residents. The plan was proposed to address the significant development disparity between North Korea's capital and its other cities and counties.

"Kim said North Korean soldiers would be mobilized to build those factories," said Park. "I took this seriously because if North Korea is preparing for war, it would not allow its soldiers to work on construction sites. North Korea's plan to build factories also signals that it has no intention of waging war, simply because if a war breaks out, these factories would be destroyed."

North Korean teens are seen in this undated photo. Korea Times file