Reports that China has built a prototype nuclear reactor for its next aircraft carrier have prompted renewed focus on its supposed long-term ambition to project naval power far from its shores.
Carriers powered by nuclear reactors do not need to refuel as often as conventionally powered ones. This gives them much greater range and also allows them to carry more fuel and weapons for their aircraft.
Associated Press reported on Nov. 11 that China had built a prototype reactor for a large surface warship on a mountain site outside the city of Leshan, in the southwestern province of Sichuan.
Research provided to the news agency by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California concluded that China's 701 Institute, which is responsible for aircraft carrier development, had procured reactor equipment "intended for installation on a large surface warship."
The analysis was based on publicly available documents, including an environmental impact report that described it as a "national defence-related" project, and satellite images taken between 2020 and 2023 showing the construction of facilities related to the reactor site.
The United States has 11 carriers that use the technology and the only other nuclear-powered carrier in service is France's Charles de Gaulle.
Beijing has long been rumoured to have been planning a nuclear-powered carrier that would help to achieve its ambitions of giving the People's Liberation Army (PLA) "blue-water capabilities," and the AP report may be the first evidence it is working towards this.
Adding such a carrier to the PLA Navy's fleet would allow it to conduct "smooth deepwater aircraft operations," according to Yoon Suk-joon, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs in Seoul and specialist in Chinese naval weapons systems.
"[Nuclear propulsion allows] sufficient operating speed that is not affected by sea conditions, sufficient power supply, ensuring the safety of the aircraft take-off and landing system, and building unlimited propulsion," added Yoon, who is a retired naval captain.
"This means that the Chinese navy can always keep its aircraft carriers on standby in open seas with greater confidence."
He said nuclear power would give the carrier a top-speed of up to 30 knots (55km/h or 34mph) and help increase the speed at which advanced launch systems for the aircraft could operate.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said a nuclear-powered carrier would be able to go on "global voyages," without necessarily having to stop for refuelling.
"All that means [is] that we are not just looking at the Chinese operating the carrier just within the region."
Koh also said he could not imagine that this type of reactor would be used for any other surface ships "and that clearly highlights the long-term Chinese ambition."
He said while nuclear-powered carriers could play a key role in potential flashpoints such as the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, "we are also going to expect the Chinese carrier to go more global ... starting with the Indian Ocean."
He also said the PLA's first overseas base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa "is large enough to accommodate an aircraft carrier."
China's navy is already the world's largest and has a goal of having six carriers by the end of 2035 as it undertakes a rapid modernisation.
Its third and newest carrier, the Fujian, is currently undergoing sea trials and is the first outside the United States to be equipped with an advanced electromagnetic catapult launch system that allows planes to be launched more frequently.
Koh added that the Chinese carrier programme is an "evolutionary" one and the Fujian's successor — commonly known as the Type 004 - will be of the "same size or even larger."
He added that if the reported reactor project was successful, "subsequent Chinese carriers ... will all be nuclear-powered."
In March, Yuan Huazhi, political commissar for the PLA Navy, confirmed work on a fourth carrier was under way and an announcement on whether it would be nuclear-powered would be made "soon."
Alex Bristow, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said nuclear-powered carriers would "bolster the PLA Navy's status as a 'first-tier' competitor of the U.S. Navy."
He added: "It's debatable whether aircraft carriers would survive long in a major U.S.-China war ... but [they] could play an important role in a number of other scenarios, giving Beijing the means to signal strength and apply force, including against weaker military opponents than the U.S."
Bristow also said: "China's development of a blue-water navy that could project force throughout and beyond the Pacific Ocean is another justification for Australia's military modernisation, including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines through the Aukus partnership [with Britain and the U.S.."
But some analysts also pointed out that there were practical constraints on what such carriers can do.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the Rand Corporation think tank in the U.S., said a nuclear-powered carrier would still need places to stop to take on food and water on long distance voyages.
"The carrier would be very vulnerable to U.S. submarines in any confrontation with the U.S. navy on the high seas," he added.
Koh said that to have a "fully functional, operable and sustainable carrier strike group," the ships need proper support. This not only included the ability to replenish supplies, but also suitable escorts to develop a "real blue-water capability."
"Correspondingly, it also means that the cost of protecting the carrier will become higher as well, with more assets to protect, the more liabilities ... It isn't just about, 'oh, I have a nuclear power and aircraft carrier'."
Read the full story at SCMP.