Chinese migrants wait to be processed after crossing the border with Mexico near Jacumba Hot Springs, Calif., U.S. May 8. AP-Yonhap

As president-elect Donald Trump made his plans to deport millions of undocumented migrants known, Chinese border crossers began flooding group chats voicing fear that their stay in the U.S. could be precariously short.

"Once Trump gets in office, he'll kick all of us out," said one.

A letter written by Chinese migrants, pledging to obey U.S. laws and contribute to the country, began circulating soon after it was clear Trump had won. Those who signed the letter aim to present it to him on his inauguration day.

So far, Trump has said he plans to declare a national emergency and use the U.S. military to accomplish his goal, as well as invoke the arcane Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to bypass migrants' due-process rights.

Stephen Miller, his immigration policy adviser, has said that "vast holding facilities" will serve as "staging centres" for the operation. On November 19, Texas offered the federal government more than 1,000 acres near the southern U.S. border to host detention centres.

Trump made immigration policy a cornerstone of his 2024 election campaign, often invoking polarising rhetoric to describe migrant groups.

He has suggested the Chinese who entered the U.S. through the southern border were trying to build a covert army.

On November 8, NBC News reported that Chinese migrants deemed of military age could be among the first targeted by Trump's plan, which he vowed to institute on "day one".

The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment.

But while Trump's deportation push is expected to surpass the scope of the efforts in his first term, it is likely to face significant legal and logistical challenges. Its success will also depend on cooperation from countries such as China that, until recently, have shown a lack of eagerness to repatriate their nationals.

"My message to the [migrant] community is to get prepared but not overreact," said Jose Ng of Chinese for Affirmative Action, a San Francisco-based non-profit that provides support to Chinese immigrants.

Ng said that many "undocumented" Chinese were unlikely to face immediate removal because they have pending cases in U.S. courts or may qualify for certain types of legal relief.

Indeed, Tom Homan, Trump's new "border tsar", has said there will not be massive raids but "targeted" enforcement focusing on those with criminal backgrounds and outstanding deportation orders — a group that experts note Joe Biden's administration has already prioritised. Still, Homan has encouraged migrants to self-deport.

"Undocumented" is a term broadly used to refer to those who intend to stay in the U.S. but lack permanent legal status, regardless of whether they have overstayed a visa or entered the country without authorisation. Many have lived in the U.S. for decades, and most are not criminals.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, right, visits the U.S.-Mexico border at Eagle Pass, Texas, as seen from Piedras Negras, Mexico, Feb. 29. Reuters-Yonhap

Various U.S. groups put the overall undocumented population at 11 to 13 million. But many individuals contained in that figure can qualify for or are in the legal process of obtaining permanent status, including through asylum.

According to the Migration Policy Institute, about 241,000 undocumented Chinese were in the U.S. in 2021; that was before America began to see an unprecedented surge of more than 60,000 Chinese crossing its southern border without proper documentation between January 2023 and November 2024.

Those with final-removal orders who have exhausted their right to appear in front of a judge are far fewer. Only about 72,000 Chinese received such orders between 1997 and 2024, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University.

Experts suggest that the recent wave of Chinese border crossers or others who entered during the Biden administration may be particularly shielded from Trump's plan, at least in its initial stages.

"It's very unlikely that many Chinese who entered after January 2023 have a final order of removal because many of them are actually still waiting for their hearings," said Felipe Alexandre, an immigration lawyer who has worked extensively with Chinese clients in California and New York.

Such hearings could take years to conclude, Alexandre added, citing the massive backlog in U.S. courts.

Experts also say it is unlikely that Trump could bypass migrants' due process rights using the Alien Enemies Act, a measure intended for wartime use.

"Some people on the political right argue that illegal migration can qualify as an invasion," said Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University.

But that's a "bad argument" that courts have rejected, he said, adding that the government would also have to show that a foreign nation orchestrated the movement of people.

For those with removal orders, "it's a matter of [U.S.] Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) finding out where they are, picking them up and putting them on planes", said Stephen Yale-Loehr, an immigration law professor at Cornell University.

But to carry out his full plan, Trump would have to ask Congress for more money to hire more ICE agents, create more detention camps for migrants awaiting deportation, and pay for flights, Yale-Loehr said.

And that effort is likely to require Democratic support in both the U.S. House and Senate, where Republicans hold slim majorities.

An asylum-seeking migrant from China rests on a rock while waiting to be transported by the U.S. Border Patrol after crossing the border from Mexico into the U.S. in Jacumba Hot Springs, Calif., U.S.. June 4. Reuters-Yonhap

According to the American Immigration Council, a Washington-based pro-immigration group, a one-time mass deportation of an estimated 13.3 million undocumented people would cost at least $315 billion.

Even with more funding, ICE would likely require some cooperation from U.S. states to identify individuals with removal orders - a push that could lead to stand-offs in some states.

A number of Democratic lawmakers and governors, including those from California and New York — which are home to the greatest numbers of Chinese migrants — have indicated they would not cooperate with federal agents and would use legal tools to fight the administration's actions.

The promises, partly driven by concerns over the disruption that a migrant exodus would cause to local economies, could lead to a patchwork of protections nationwide.

Homan has threatened retaliation against non-cooperative states and law enforcement, but local authorities are not obliged to support federal immigration efforts.

Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh of the Migration Policy Institute said that Trump in his initial months would probably seek obvious targets to show "high numbers and ease of removals", prioritising countries with friendly relations with the U.S., existing deportation or extradition agreements and geographical proximity.

Topping that list, Putzel-Kavanaugh said, would be Mexico and Central American nations, instead of countries like China.

Although not strictly required for deportations, China does not have a formal deportation or extradition agreement with the U.S.. It has also stressed a strict identity vetting process before accepting deportees.

After a migrant with a removal order is apprehended by U.S. authorities, receiving countries generally need to verify that the individual is their citizen before accepting a limited number at a time for deportation.

For Chinese nationals to be repatriated, U.S. authorities must provide their personal details — often obtained through the immigration processing system — to the Chinese embassy or consulates.

The information is then forwarded to China's Ministry of Public Security, which tasks local authorities in the migrants' hometowns with verifying their identities — an effort that may prove unsuccessful.

Additionally, many Chinese will not have valid passports or other travel documents that ICE requires for removal, according to Sin Yen Ling, a former defence lawyer with 20 years of experience.

In the past, China often would refuse travel documents for individuals with criminal records or denied asylum claims, Ling said.

For years, the U.S. has accused China of stonewalling repatriation efforts, while Beijing has maintained that it would cooperate in returning those who could be confirmed to be Chinese citizens.

In recent months, there have been some signs that Beijing's calculus has shifted.

Although Chinese for decades have overstayed their visas in the U.S., the optics of tens of thousands of people leaving China, risking their lives traversing South and Central America and illegally entering the U.S., have not reflected well on Beijing.

Washington has also been exerting greater pressure on China, and Chinese sources say the desire to improve tense relations has played a role in Beijing being more cooperative.

This year, the U.S. and China have cooperated on at least four chartered deportation flights carrying a total of 475 Chinese citizens.

The Chinese embassy in Washington told the South China Morning Post in a statement that China would continue to "strengthen international law enforcement cooperation and work with relevant countries to jointly address the challenges brought by organised migrant smuggling".

That said, priorities could differ for the two sides. Beijing wants dissidents and fugitives returned and Washington wants to deport ordinary economic migrants.

According to some observers, Beijing may be less eager to cooperate in the second Trump administration.

"Friction over trade or human rights could well lead China to press pause on cooperation with the incoming Trump administration on migrants," said Thomas Kellogg of the Centre for Asian Law at Georgetown University, while noting that Trump's deal making approach could add pressure on Beijing.

Other factors, though, work in favour of those seeking rapid removal.

While several of Trump's plans would likely spawn lawsuits — similar to those that stymied his first-term immigration policies — he has experience from his first administration and, probably, Congress and the courts on his side.

Since the start of his first term, the Supreme Court has reaffirmed that the president has broad powers over immigration, and the court's 6-3 conservative slant is the most pronounced in recent memory, thanks in large part to the three justices Trump nominated.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans have proposed using an expedited budget process to fast track deportation funding.

Non-profits also say there are not enough resources to support undocumented migrants, including skilled immigration lawyers with language proficiency — a particular issue for Chinese, according to Ng of Chinese for Affirmative Action.

Without competent attorneys, the likelihood of losing a court case significantly increases. Chinese migrants who don't speak English may not be aware of their full rights, risking removal despite being legally entitled to stay.

For the Chinese who do return, the future looks bleak.

Chinese sources told the Post these individuals could face a three-year ban on applying for a new passport, inclusion on immigration blacklists and intense monitoring by local police and district officials.

Some, based on China's Exit and Entry Administration Law, could pay fines or face prosecution because of the methods they used to leave the country and whether they played a role in smuggling others.

Deportees' social credit would also likely be deducted and their children could encounter problems when applying for government jobs requiring political and background screening, sources said.

And that does not count the backlash awaiting some migrants from people at home.

"Please do not send them back to China, we don't want trash," said The Upright Brother Lei, a nationalist blogger with more than 600,000 followers on Weibo, after the U.S. announced its third deportation flight to China this year.

For some still in the U.S., the fear of deportation has already come and gone.

"All we can do at this point is abide by the law, prepare our asylum cases diligently and focus on living well," said Iris Zhao, who overstayed her tourist visa last year and whose brother and mother crossed the southern U.S. border earlier this year.

"If, unfortunately, we are deported, we can only accept it as fate."

Read the full story at SCMP.