North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russia's President Vladimir Putin attend an official ceremony at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang to welcome Putin for a state visit on June 19, 2024. TASS-Yonhap

North Korea and Russia's partnership is showing signs of deepening even as Moscow participates in peace talks to end its war in Ukraine, fueling speculation that their military cooperation could persist well beyond the end of fighting.

Their military ties, solidified during a surprise summit between their leaders in September 2023, have been rooted in mutual strategic interests. Russia has relied on North Korea for ammunition and troop support in its invasion of Ukraine, while Pyongyang is believed to have received military technology in return.

Despite expectations that their transactional partnership would weaken after the war, analysts suggest their bond is only growing stronger, even as ceasefire negotiations between Russia and the United States to end the three-year conflict in Ukraine are seeing some progress.

"Throughout the war, North Korea has proven to be Russia's most reliable — if not the only — ally. No other country has openly sided with Russia and sent troops in support," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"Even if peace negotiations are signed and the war winds down, military tensions between Russia and NATO will persist, meaning Putin will still need Pyongyang, a trusted partner capable of providing munitions if necessary," Cho added.

The growing partnership between North Korean and Russia has been evidenced by a recent visit to Pyongyang by Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin. Shoigu met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to reaffirm their countries' commitment to the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty.

On Friday, Putin cited North Korea as one of the nations Russia is willing to engage with in resolving the war. The Russian leader mentioned not only BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — but also North Korea as a potential participant in the peace process, signaling Moscow's increasing recognition of Pyongyang in its diplomatic circles.

A Russian serviceman walks past a building destroyed in combat in the city of Sudzha, Russia, March 23 (local time). TASS-Yonhap

Meanwhile, some analysts say Trump's friendly outreach toward Putin could give Kim further reason to maintain close ties with Moscow, as the Russian leader could serve as a key intermediary in potential U.S.-North Korea negotiations.

For North Korea, Russia is a key diplomatic ally, especially as it seeks leverage in its dealings with the United States. With signs of improving Russia-U.S. relations, Kim may aim to leverage his ties with Putin to gain an advantage in potential negotiations with Washington.

"Despite the constraints of sanctions and infrastructure shortages, North Korea and Russia are expected to continue pursuing pragmatic cooperation," read a recent report by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on the future of North Korea-Russia relations published March 24.

"Russia's strategic goal of enhancing its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, in line with its vision of a new multipolar world, aligns with North Korea's ambition to assert greater control over Korean Peninsula affairs. This mutual alignment could deepen their ties further," the report added.

A key demonstration of this strengthened partnership could come soon, as Kim is considering a visit to Russia. The Kremlin confirmed last week that preparations are underway to welcome the North Korean leader later this year.

One possible occasion for Kim's visit is Moscow's Victory Day parade on May 9, which commemorates the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed invitations were extended to several Asian leaders, according to Russian media reports, fueling speculation that Kim could be among them. If Kim attends, it would mark a rare appearance at a multilateral event for the reclusive leader.

"Kim's potential trip to Moscow on Victory Day would provide both Russia and North Korea a key platform to showcase that their relationship will outlast the Ukraine war," Cho said.

However, Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, cautioned that a trip to Moscow in May might be too risky for Kim.

"If Kim were planning to visit, we would already see signs of preparations and some North Korean senior officials traveling to Moscow," Yang said. "But so far, there are no clear indications of such exchanges."

Yang also noted that North Korea lacks a private aircraft capable of flying directly to Moscow. In his previous trip to the Russian Far East region, Kim traveled by armored train.

"While Russia may offer an aircraft to North Korea for Kim's travel, it would be a blow to Kim's pride. And although the war in Ukraine isn't directly impacting Moscow, traveling to a region near the conflict carries significant risks for the secretive leader," he added.

Servicemen march in formation during a Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square, May 9, 2024, marking the 79th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. TASS-Yonhap