By Sunny Lee

BEIJING — The strategically located Korean Peninsula is where regional big powers compete for leadership, if not hegemony. And while Koreans want unification, this will be also influenced by the dynamics of complex and intertwined interests of different outside stakeholders based on their own national interests. A Chinese scholar argues that it is Japan, among the countries, which least wants to see the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

"From my perspective, among the neighboring countries surrounding the Korean Peninsula, the nation that most opposes the unification of the two Koreas is Japan," argued Chen Fengjun, a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University in Beijing.

His remark also challenges some views in Seoul that it is actually Beijing, which is reluctant to see Korean unification.

The 75-year-old scholar doesn't mind being challenged and engaging in this very controversial discussion as he sees the matter needs clarification.

Security experts have long regarded the Korean Peninsula as "East Asia's Balkans," where different countries' interests converged and collided in Europe.

The very fact that there are as many as six countries involved in North Korea's denuclearization issue, called "six-party talks," is because each of them sees its national interest at stake and wants to have a say on the matter.

To prove his point, Chen, the author of the book, "Asia-Pacific Powers and the Korean Peninsula," goes over, one by one, the stances of different stakeholders in the Korean Peninsula — the United States, China, Japan and Russia — and compares how each of them sees the issue of reunification. He starts off with Russia.

"Russia's attitude has recently undergone some changes. It used to prefer the division of the two Koreas, but lately it actually has begun to prefer unification," Chen said.

"Russia expects a unified and strong Korea to have a more independent attitude. Russia sees Korea will play the role of a 'balancing point,' counterweighing the influences of the United States, China and Japan in East Asia vis-a-vis Russia. Of course, Russia wants a unified Korea that is friendly to it."

In South Korea, the usual discourse states that the United States is the most reliable security partner, which doesn't harbor territorial ambition on the Korean Peninsula because it is geographically far away. Since the Cold War, the U.S. has been South Korea's main military ally.

Chen cautions that Washington's support for Korean unification is conditional. "The U.S. will tell you it supports unification. But there is a caveat. The U.S. wants unification on the condition that its influence on the Korean Peninsula is preserved.

"At the moment, though, the U.S. doesn't want immediate unification either due to its strategic interest in East Asia. Currently, the U.S. prefers a certain degree of tension on the Korean Peninsula that can validate the presence of U.S. troops there, which can also justify the presence of U.S. military in nearby Japan as well."

A popular argument outside China goes that it is in fact Beijing, which prefers the status quo of the divided Korean Peninsula as it wants to use the North as a "buffer zone" against U.S. troops in East Asia. Chen refutes this view. "China sees that a unified Korea, which is neutral and engaging in peaceful diplomacy with its neighboring countries, doesn't pose a threat to China."

Chen argued: "A country like Korea, which is strategically located between the two superpowers of the U.S. and China, should pursue an equidistance diplomacy, without turning too close to one of them."

China is reportedly unwilling to welcome a unified, perhaps also more vocal, Korea either, due to its fear of a territorial dispute over Goguryo, currently in China's northeastern region, seen by Koreans as its "lost territory."

"I don't discount such a possibility. But even a unified Korea will only have a population of 70 million, similar to Vietnam's. It's way small compared to China. Besides, such possibility becomes an issue only after Korean reunification.

"In terms of unification, the most important factor, as I see it, is how much the North and the South really want it for each other. Frankly, China is willing to welcome a unified Korea, which is neutral. That means, it doesn't belong to the U.S. security camp and treats China as a threat."

"From my perspective, the country that opposes most unification is Japan. Even Japanese scholars themselves openly say so at international conferences, worrying that a unified and strong Korea may become a military and economic threat to Japan," Chen argued.

Both Korea and China were victims of Japanese invasions decades ago. Japanese thinkers also worry about Korea and China teaming up closer to each other, and "ganging up on" Japan, according to some Chinese scholars, illustrating how complex, often mistrustful, the relationship of the three Asian neighboring countries is.

Incidentally, this week Japan angered Korea — again. Japan sparked Koreans' enragement with its plan to authorize the publication Wednesday of middle-school textbooks stating that the Dokdo Islets are Japanese territory, a very sensitive issue, clearly destined to strain relations between the two countries. The move could also turn South Koreans' sympathy toward Japan's earthquake into anger and hostility, analysts say.

The two Koreas need to work on unification more themselves too. Last year, the two came close to the brink of war over the North's shelling of the South's Yeonpyeong Island.

At that time, China's attitude came under harsh criticism for its apparent "neutral position," which benefited North Korea by shielding it from international criticism. South Koreans were more direct. They criticized China for taking sides with North Korea, a Cold War ally during the Korean War.

History doesn't warrant the question that starts with "if." But what if there were a war between the two Koreas again, as seen 60 years ago. Would China send its aid troops to North Korea?

The Chinese scholar doesn't mind being challenged by this reporter asking the probing question. "That certainly won't happen," Chen said. "Who then is China going to fight against? South Korea? Come on, the bilateral trade last year between China and South Korea reached a whopping $200 billion. What kind of benefit wouldChina get by fighting with South Korea?"