The second Donald Trump administration will officially be inaugurated next week. A lot of uncertainties await in U.S. domestic politics as well as in a world marred with devastating wars and conflicts. The situation is further complicated with regard to U.S.-Korea relations due to Korea's ongoing political crises after the martial law fiasco.
I believe President Yoon Suk Yeol would have gotten along well with Trump. They share far-right and contentious proclivities and are strongman rulers. Furthermore, Yoon's foreign policies including reconciliation with Japan and being cautious of China are what Washington loves because they align with U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region. But Yoon is suspended from his duties, and likely faces jail time after the unthinkable overreach of his power. No more showing off singing “American Pie” in front of American officials. Korea is a headless state now and its ability to focus on key regional and international issues is undermined due to internal turmoil. And Trump's America First policy along with his unpredictability could pose an issue to the U.S.-Korea relationship.
The new Trump administration comes with an important and volatile agenda that the crippled South Korean government may find difficult to deal with. Those include potential withdrawal of the American forces from Korea, North Korean denuclearization and proposed tariffs on Korean exports to the U.S. Trump demands $10 billion per year from Seoul for “keeping the country safe” with American soldiers and threatens to withdraw its troops unless his request is met; Trump already forged ties with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and may as well engage in direct negotiation with Pyongyang, isolating Seoul; high tariffs may be a blow to the Korean economy focused on exports. Those are vital issues that may affect the backbone of South Korea's security and economy. But is Korea prepared at all to handle them? Again, uncertainties and concerns abound due to Korea's unstable politics.
Trump will engage with the current headless Korean government for the time being and is likely to meet his new counterpart following a possible presidential election in Korea. The expected new liberal Korean leader and conservative Trump may face friction on issues such as U.S. troops in Korea and other geopolitical matters.
On a potentially positive note, the Trump regime may turn out to help end brutal wars and save lives on the Korean Peninsula. Currently, Seoul and Pyongyang are engaged in sort of a proxy war. Seoul sent various types of assistance to Ukraine and Pyongyang is said to have sent as many as 12,000 soldiers to fight on behalf of Russia. These young North Korean soldiers are getting killed for someone else's war, being used as pawns to curry favor with Moscow. If Trump ends the Russian-Ukraine war quickly as he confidently promised, that would be a great help to many. Trump's personal quest for “brotherhood” with Kim Jong-un may also turn out to be a boon to the stability of the Korean Peninsula, although the circumstances are quite different from the first Trump administration.
The martial law debacle in Korea could have significant consequences for U.S.-South Korea relations under the Trump administration. It may introduce uncertainty and strain, especially on issues of geopolitics and internal stability. However, the fundamentals of U.S.-Korea relations are strong. Both countries share strategic interests in maintaining regional security, and domestic political instability would not undermine broader relationships between the two long-term allies. In fact, a new Korean government may be better equipped to renegotiate and renew the alliance between the two countries than Yoon, who was seen as incompetent and unprincipled in terms of foreign affairs.
Ultimately, the Korea-U.S. relationship stands at a crossroads, but it is not without hope. The alliance has weathered countless challenges over the decades, from military tensions to economic upheavals, and it has emerged stronger each time. If leaders in both Washington and Seoul approach the current moment with clarity, foresight and a commitment to shared values, there is every reason to believe that the partnership will not only endure but also evolve to meet the complexities of the political reality. This moment of uncertainty, while daunting, may also present an opportunity for both nations to reaffirm their alliance and set a course for a more stable and prosperous future together.
Min Seong-jae (smin@pace.edu) is a professor of communication and media studies at Pace University in New York. He was a 2023-24 Fulbright U.S. Scholar to Korea.