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Will S. Korea join AUKUS Pillar 2 in face of deepening Russia-NK ties?

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U.S. President Joe Biden, center, meets with Britain's then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, and Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese at Point Loma naval base in San Diego, U.S., March 13, as part of AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. AP-Yonhap

U.S. President Joe Biden, center, meets with Britain's then Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, and Prime Minister of Australia Anthony Albanese at Point Loma naval base in San Diego, U.S., March 13, as part of AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. AP-Yonhap

Experts fear Seoul's participation can further strain relations with Beijing
By Kwak Yeon-soo

There is an ongoing discussion as to whether South Korea will join the AUKUS Pillar 2 in the face of deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

The AUKUS — an acronym for Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. — is a trilateral security partnership formed among the three countries in 2021 to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Pillar 2 of the AUKUS aims to share advanced military technology in areas such as hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence and cyber technology, whereas Pillar 1 involves delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

In May, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said the possibility of joining the AUKUS Pillar 2 was discussed during a "2 Plus 2" meeting among foreign and defense ministers in Melbourne, Australia.

"We do welcome that AUKUS members are considering South Korea as an AUKUS Pillar 2 partner. Korea's defense science and technology capabilities will contribute to the peace and stability of the development of the AUKUS Pillar 2 and regional peace," Shin said during a press conference following the meeting.

Last month's summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un strengthened military alliance between the two countries, putting South Korea's security at risk. The two signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which involves providing mutual defense assistance in case either side faces an armed attack.

The government is now facing growing calls to engage in discussions with AUKUS members to weigh up the economic and security benefits and costs about whether joining Pillar 2 is in the national interest. The presidential office said it is in the early stages of discussion and it would require a considerable amount of time for review.

Although nothing has been decided yet, experts see Seoul's participation as an opportunity to boost deterrence against North Korea and other security threats.

"South Korea has much to gain from joining AUKUS Pillar 2, especially around this time when North Korea and Russia are strengthening military ties," Ban Kil-joo, a research professor at Korea University, said. "The AUKUS Pillar 2 isn't just a security partnership. It's more like a new Cold War-era military alliance. Thus, it will contribute to peace and stability in the region."

Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said joining AUKUS Pillar 2 would mean falling under U.S.-led "lattice-like architecture." This strategic framework refers to several small cooperation groups, including South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation, the AUKUS and the Quad.

"If South Korea joins the AUKUS Pillar 2, it will be able to deter, defend and respond to threats from North Korea, among other regional threats. The U.S., U.K. and Australia will provide security assurance and South Korea will be able to learn about emerging military technologies," Doo said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, left, shakes hands with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ahead of their bilateral talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, May 13. Yonhap

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, left, shakes hands with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi ahead of their bilateral talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, May 13. Yonhap

However, experts pointed out that joining the AUKUS Pillar 2 would also come with risks.

Seoul's participation would likely deteriorate its already-tense relationship with Beijing, since the pact is widely seen as part of U.S.-led efforts to counter China's assertiveness in the region.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington objected to the arrangement, saying "AUKUS is essentially about fueling military confrontation through military collaboration."

"It (AUKUS) creates additional nuclear proliferation risks, exacerbates the arms race in the Asia-Pacific and hurts regional peace and stability. China is deeply concerned and firmly opposed to it," Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA on May 6.

Ban said, "China will probably be upset if South Korea participates in AUKUS Pillar 2, but I think we should manage the risk by assuring China that Pillar 2 is a platform for technology collaboration."

Doo feared that the government's efforts to stabilize ties with China might come to nothing. South Korean and Chinese foreign ministers resumed talks and Seoul hosted a long-suspended South Korea-Japan-China trilateral summit in May.

"Seoul will likely face a strong opposition from Beijing. China may retaliate by joining forces with North Korea and Russia, heightening tensions on the Korean Peninsula," Doo said.

Pundits suggested South Korea should adopt strategic ambiguity until the U.S. election.

"There is no need to make a hasty decision. We can use it as a leverage tool to engage with like-minded countries and deter North Korean aggression," Doo said.

Meanwhile, Japan, New Zealand and Canada are reportedly under consideration for AUKUS Pillar 2 partners.

Kwak Yeon-soo yeons.kwak@koreatimes.co.kr


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